Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle: Premier League Clash at City Ground

Nottingham Forest welcome Newcastle to the City Ground on 10 May 2026 in a late-season Premier League fixture that matters for positioning, pride and momentum more than outright survival. Forest arrive 16th on 42 points, Newcastle 13th on 45; both appear clear of the drop but are still jostling to finish as high as possible in the table and to carry a sense of progress into the summer.

Context and stakes

In the league, Nottingham Forest have put together an eye-catching surge: their current form line reads WWWDW, the joint-strongest five-game sequence they have managed across the season. That run has lifted them to 42 points with a goal difference of -2 (44 scored, 46 conceded) from 35 matches.

Newcastle, by contrast, have gone into reverse. Their form is WLLLL in the league, a sequence that has dragged them back towards mid-table after earlier ambitions of pushing higher. They sit 13th with 45 points, also on -2 goal difference (49 for, 51 against) from 35 games.

With just three matches left, the gap between these sides is a single win. A Forest victory would pull them level on points with Newcastle and underline the sense of a season rescued. An away win would give Newcastle daylight and the chance to target a top-half push.

Forest: home fragility, late-season steel

Across all phases this season, Forest’s record is defined by a stark contrast between a modest home return and a far sharper edge away. At the City Ground in the league they have:

• Played 17
• Won 4
• Drawn 6
• Lost 7
• Goals for 18, against 21

Their home scoring rate of 1.1 goals per game and concession rate of 1.2 underline how fine the margins have been. They have kept 4 clean sheets at home but have also failed to score in 9 of those 17 matches – more than half of their home fixtures.

Tactically, Forest are built around a flexible 4-2-3-1. That shape has been used in 29 league matches across all phases, far more than any alternative. The system leans heavily on the creativity and goal threat of Morgan Gibbs-White in the central attacking role.

Gibbs-White’s numbers in 2025 are central to Forest’s attacking identity:

• 35 appearances (33 starts), 2,930 minutes
• 13 league goals and 4 assists
• 54 shots, 28 on target
• 46 key passes, 1,139 total passes at 81% accuracy

He is both Forest’s leading scorer and their main playmaker, ranking high for key passes and shots. His duel volume (305, with 122 won) and dribble attempts (52, with 25 successful) show how often Forest channel possession through him between the lines. Expect him to operate off the Newcastle holding midfielders, drifting into pockets to combine with wide players and the lone striker.

Defensively, Forest are not watertight but they are organised: 9 clean sheets across all phases and an average of 1.3 goals conceded per game both home and away. Their biggest home win (4-1) and heaviest home defeat (0-3) reflect a side that can swing between expansive and exposed depending on game state.

Discipline is a subplot. Forest’s yellow-card distribution spikes between 46-75 minutes, where 26 of their bookings have come. That suggests a tendency to become stretched and to foul more as intensity rises after half-time.

Newcastle: away inconsistency and structural questions

Newcastle’s season has been defined by a powerful home attack and a far more conservative, less efficient away game. In the league away from home they have:

• Played 17
• Won 4
• Drawn 4
• Lost 9
• Goals for 16, against 22

They score just 0.9 goals per away match while conceding 1.3, and have failed to score in 7 of those 17 away fixtures. That lack of away cutting edge is one of the main tactical themes coming into this trip.

Across all phases, Newcastle’s default structure is a 4-3-3 (27 matches), occasionally tweaked into a 4-2-3-1. That base gives them a solid midfield platform and allows their full-backs to push on, but the away numbers suggest that when they cannot impose themselves territorially, they struggle to turn possession into goals.

Bruno Guimarães is the heartbeat of this side and their standout performer in 2025:

• 26 appearances (24 starts), 2,210 minutes
• 9 goals, 5 assists
• 29 shots (18 on target)
• 1,266 passes at 86% accuracy, 43 key passes
• 55 tackles and 13 interceptions

He is both a deep playmaker and a genuine goal threat from midfield, with 2 penalties scored this season. His duel numbers (287 total, 143 won) and high foul count drawn (62) show how central he is to Newcastle’s attempts to control games and progress the ball through the middle third.

Defensively, Newcastle concede 1.5 goals per game across all phases, with 8 clean sheets. Their biggest away win (1-4) and heaviest away defeat (4-1) reinforce the sense of volatility: when their front line clicks, they can overwhelm opponents, but their back line can also be exposed.

Card data suggests they become increasingly stretched late on. They have picked up 18 yellow cards between 76-90 minutes and 11 more in added time, plus three red cards between 46-75 minutes. In a tight match at the City Ground, that late indiscipline could be decisive.

Injuries and selection issues

Forest’s defensive depth is compromised. W. Boly, John Victor and N. Savona are all listed as missing with knee injuries, while C. Hudson-Odoi is also out injured. O. Aina is questionable. That combination restricts options in central defence and at full-back, and removes a direct, one-v-one winger in Hudson-Odoi who might otherwise have targeted Newcastle’s flanks.

Newcastle are also light at the back. E. Krafth (knee), V. Livramento (thigh), L. Miley (broken leg) and F. Schar (ankle) are all ruled out. Schar’s absence, in particular, removes an experienced organiser and ball-playing centre-back, potentially forcing a reshuffle in the central defensive pairing and reducing their ability to build from the back.

Both sides therefore come into this with defensive rotations enforced, which could tilt the match towards transitional football and set-piece importance.

Head-to-head: Newcastle dominance

Looking at the last five competitive meetings between these sides (league and cups, excluding friendlies), Newcastle have a clear edge:

1. 05 October 2025, St. James' Park (Premier League): Newcastle 2-0 Nottingham Forest – Newcastle win.
2. 23 February 2025, St. James' Park (Premier League): Newcastle 4-3 Nottingham Forest – Newcastle win.
3. 10 November 2024, The City Ground (Premier League): Nottingham Forest 1-3 Newcastle – Newcastle win.
4. 28 August 2024, The City Ground (League Cup 2nd Round): Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle, penalties 3-4 – Newcastle progress after shootout.
5. 10 February 2024, The City Ground (Premier League): Nottingham Forest 2-3 Newcastle – Newcastle win.

Across these five competitive fixtures, Newcastle have 5 wins, Nottingham Forest have 0, with 0 draws (the League Cup tie was level after extra time but settled on penalties). The scorelines show Newcastle consistently finding multiple goals and, crucially, winning in both home and away contexts.

Tactical battle

Forest’s 4-2-3-1 versus Newcastle’s 4-3-3 sets up a clear midfield confrontation. The home side will aim to protect their back four with a double pivot, then spring Gibbs-White between the lines. Given Forest’s relatively low home scoring rate and their high number of home blanks, the quality of his link play and set-piece delivery will be vital.

Newcastle’s 4-3-3 will hinge on Bruno Guimarães controlling tempo and breaking Forest’s first line of pressure. If he can receive facing forward, Newcastle can exploit the channels around Forest’s full-backs, especially given the hosts’ defensive injuries. However, with Schar and full-back options missing, Newcastle may be more cautious about committing numbers forward, especially early on.

Set pieces and penalties could play a role. Forest have scored all 3 penalties they have taken across all phases this season; Newcastle have converted all 6 of theirs. Individually, both Gibbs-White (1 scored, 0 missed) and Bruno Guimarães (2 scored, 0 missed) have been reliable from the spot.

The verdict

The data pulls this fixture in two directions. On one side, Forest have the stronger recent league form, home advantage, and a talisman in Gibbs-White enjoying a productive season. On the other, Newcastle have dominated the head-to-head, scoring freely against Forest and winning all five of the last competitive meetings.

Newcastle’s away record and current WLLLL form make them difficult to trust fully, especially with key defensive absentees. Forest’s home record is underwhelming, but their recent upturn and the chance to draw level on points with Newcastle add emotional fuel.

On balance, this shapes up as a tight, tactical match where midfield control and individual quality from Gibbs-White and Bruno Guimarães are likely to define the outcome. A narrow margin either way is plausible, but the most logical expectation, given Forest’s momentum against Newcastle’s historical edge and away inconsistency, is a closely fought contest with both sides having realistic hopes of edging it late on.