Arsenal’s Title to Lose: Pre-Season Predictions from Our Writers

The new season hasn’t even kicked off and the verdict is already in: this is Arsenal’s title to lose. Almost everyone agrees. Almost.

Across the board, a panel of writers have nailed their colours to the mast, and the picture is clear. Arsenal, fresh from finally getting over the line and now armed with Bruno Guimaraes, are being treated as the grown‑ups in a league full of half-built projects and nervous owners.

Sarah Winterburn doesn’t even bother pretending there’s jeopardy. For her, only “the unhinged” would pick anyone other than Arsenal after a summer of stability and serious reinforcement. She has them winning the league by double digits.

She’s not alone. Matt Stead calls it “Phase five” for Mikel Arteta. Dave Tickner talks about Arsenal finally cashing in on being the only properly settled side while everyone else tears things up and starts again. Ian Watson, Jason Soutar, Lewis Oldham, Michael Lee, Nestor Watach and Samuel Bannister all land in the same place: Arsenal as favourites, the most coherent club in a division full of unknowns.

The only real dissent? John Nicholson, who goes for Manchester United. He points to their form under Michael Carrick and simply calls it “the facts”. United as champions in a league that has supposedly tilted Arsenal’s way. That would be some plot twist.

The Race Behind Arsenal: Chelsea’s Revival, City’s Comedown

If picking the champions feels straightforward, everything behind them is chaos.

Chelsea are the recurring wildcard. Winterburn has them second “a long way behind” Arsenal, ahead of Liverpool and Manchester City, with Manchester United nudged into fifth. Stead goes with “Cobham Current Gen” in second, then City, then Liverpool. Nicholson also has Chelsea as runners-up, followed by City and Aston Villa.

Tickner, like everyone else, admits this is a shot in the dark. His top four behind Arsenal: Chelsea, Liverpool, City. Watson has City, Chelsea and Tottenham. Soutar: Chelsea, City, Spurs. Oldham: City, Chelsea, Liverpool, with City again falling just short. Michael Lee and Watach both back Chelsea and City to fill the Champions League slots, with Liverpool and United thrown into the mix.

Bannister is bolder. He puts Liverpool second, ahead of City and Chelsea, and tips Alexander Isak under Andoni Iraola and a sharper Florian Wirtz to push Liverpool on. City, he says, carry question marks into the post‑Pep era, even if the momentum from the final stretch of that regime lingers. Chelsea, free of Europe, are expected to feast on the clear midweeks.

Nobody is confident. Everyone knows they’ll be wrong.

Relegation: Ipswich, Hull, Coventry in the Crosshairs

At the other end, the knives are out for the promoted clubs.

Ipswich, Coventry and Hull City are the most common picks to go straight back down. Winterburn has all three dropping. Watson does too. Bannister agrees, while predicting Coventry will put up the best fight and warning that Crystal Palace could flirt dangerously with the drop.

Tickner doesn’t overcomplicate it: “the promoted teams”. No romance, no miracle survival, just a Burnley‑style churn. Watach also expects all three to fall, calling it a “grim and concerning” return to the old norm.

Others try to thread the needle. Stead thinks Hull are doomed and Coventry will eventually go, but Ipswich survive by going full “Leeds Protocol” and signing a team of six‑footers, leaving Sunderland to get “xG’d” into trouble. Jason Soutar calls Ipswich “rubbish” and Hull “proper rubbish” and throws Fulham into the bottom three. Oldham has Hull and Ipswich as certainties but thinks Coventry’s momentum under Frank Lampard keeps them up, with Fulham instead finishing 18th. Michael Lee sends Sunderland, Coventry and Hull down, backing Ipswich’s business and warning Sunderland’s European distraction could drag them under.

Newcastle and Palace also get dragged into the conversation. Nicholson tips Newcastle and Palace to join Hull in going down, predicting new‑manager collapses. Tickner and others “fear for” those clubs without quite pushing them over the edge.

Leeds, Chelsea, Newcastle: Who Delivers the Pleasant Surprise?

In an era where schadenfreude usually wins, the “pleasant surprise” category feels almost quaint. But a few names keep bubbling up.

Leeds United are the romantic pick. Winterburn thinks they’ve bought well enough for a top‑eight finish. Nicholson goes harder: Leeds to finish sixth, buoyed by a new goalkeeper, centre‑back, midfielder and striker. Oldham believes they can sneak into the top ten, while Watson says they’ll be “surprising if not pleasant”. Watach notes how strong they were in the second half of last season and believes their summer business under Daniel Farke could fuel a push for the Conference League.

Chelsea also feature, but with a caveat. Soutar sees them as a top‑two side, though he admits that’s not exactly “pleasant” for neutrals. Tickner reckons they’re genuine title contenders over a long stretch of the season, even if labelling that a “pleasant surprise” feels like a stretch given the money spent and the absence of European football.

Others scatter their optimism. Bannister expects a response from Newcastle, predicting a top‑half finish after a flat year and arguing the negative mood around their summer departures ignores the potential of their younger signings. Stead has Bournemouth and Palace both in the top half. Michael Lee tips Forest to get back into Europe. Soutar also gives Coventry a pat on the head with a projected 15th place.

Haaland, Again and Again

The Golden Boot conversation barely qualifies as a debate.

Erling Haaland is the near‑unanimous choice. Winterburn, Stead, Nicholson, Watson, Soutar, Oldham, Michael Lee, Watach and Bannister all hand him the crown again. Some add a chaser: Winterburn and Oldham think Alexander Isak will chase him closest, Nicholson tips Benjamin Sesko as a strong runner‑up.

Tickner leans into the inevitability. He calls Haaland the “Goalbot 3000” and has him rattling in his traditional early‑season burst – 12 in the first nine games – en route to another near‑30 tally. He then goes hunting for each‑way value, floating Matheus Cunha at a three‑figure price and Cody Gakpo at 80/1, if Gakpo lands the starting striker role at Spurs and doesn’t “make a b*llocks” of it.

Nobody really makes a serious case for anyone else to win it outright. The gap in pure goalscoring power still looks vast.

New Faces, New Foundations

The signing expected to have the biggest positive impact splits opinion, but one club keeps cropping up: Leeds.

James Trafford is the poster boy. Stead calls him, “by definition”, the standout, while warning that all new Leeds goalkeepers might be cursed after Lucas Perri’s hype last year. Watson says Trafford will make a “huge difference” simply by not being “dicey”, Soutar loves the trio of Trafford, Harry Wilson and Tarik Muharemovic as a collective, Oldham believes Trafford could end the season as England’s No.1, and Bannister – despite feeling Leeds may have overpaid – says he finally gives them the security they’ve craved.

Watach singles out Muharemovic, who has shone in pre‑season. Replacing Pascal Struijk is no small task, but he thinks the Bosnia international can lift Leeds to another level and expects Champions League clubs to come calling within a year.

At the very top, Bruno Guimaraes to Arsenal is the headline move. Winterburn thinks he can unlock extra creativity in the champions. Watson also believes he’ll be “great for Arsenal”, while noting Trafford’s importance to Leeds. Sandro Tonali to Tottenham gets a nod from Winterburn as the man who could turn 17th into seventh.

Elsewhere, Morgan Rogers is picked by Nicholson as exactly what Chelsea need. Tickner is seduced by Christos Tzolis after the Community Shield. Michael Lee warns Manchester United might regret not paying up for Mateus Fernandes.

Big Money, Big Trouble

On the flip side, there’s no shortage of candidates to flop.

Elliot Anderson’s huge move to Manchester City is a recurring target. Winterburn calls his fee “frankly ridiculous” for a runner and worker who may not be enough at City’s level. Tickner brands him the most egregious of the summer’s many overspends in midfield. Michael Lee says £116m is “extortionate” and fears he’s joined City at the wrong time. Bannister expects the price tag to weigh heavily and doubts he’ll convince.

Morgan Rogers also takes fire. Nicholson leans on tradition, saying Spurs’ big-money signings often flop and flags Tonali. Watson “fears for” Rogers at his price. Watach is blunt: the second most expensive signing in Premier League history? Really?

Soutar labels Ronald Araujo “bobbins” and predicts a poor spell for Victor Munoz at Liverpool. Oldham thinks £50m is far too much for Andrey Santos. Jason Soutar also throws in Munoz as another likely disappointment.

Garnacho isn’t spared either. Watson picks him as a potential flop, with the weight of expectation and price swirling around United’s new era.

Steals of the Summer

Where there’s waste, there’s value. Several deals are being talked up as outright thefts.

Youri Tielemans to Manchester United for £35m stands out. Winterburn calls it a “steal”, Bannister labels it “shrewd” business for a player of his quality, even if United might not see much resale value.

Leeds again dominate the bargain chat. Harry Wilson on a free is widely praised. Stead has him continuing the club’s tradition of free transfers hitting double figures for goals. Nicholson calls it “great business” and a perfect fit. Tickner admits free transfers feel like cheating in this category, but says Wilson still qualifies because Leeds had tried to sign him for a fee last year. Watson also highlights Wilson and Xaver Schlager as freebie value.

Michael Lee flips the script and nominates Trafford as a bargain despite him being Leeds’ record signing, arguing he’ll save them so many points that the fee will look cheap. Watach points to Hayden Hackney at £16m as crazily low in a wild market. Oldham names Christian Norgaard to Everton as a clever pick-up after his strong season at Brentford. Soutar throws in Christos Tzolis and Marcos Senesi as honourable mentions.

Player of the Year: Rice, Bruno G, or Haaland Again?

If Arsenal do retain their title, logic says their star man walks off with the PFA Player of the Year award. The panel largely agrees.

Declan Rice is the leading pick. Tickner believes a deeper, better-stocked Arsenal midfield will allow him to make an even greater impact after finishing the World Cup looking like “football’s weariest human”. Watson also goes for Rice, assuming he’s finally had a proper rest. Watach expects him to be the headline‑grabber in a team that might again share the load.

Bruno Guimaraes gets backing too. Winterburn thinks he can be the creative unlock that defines the champions’ season. Oldham follows the logic that the award usually comes from the title winners and tips Bruno after a strong World Cup and a role alongside Rice.

David Raya is Michael Lee and Soutar’s choice, a rare shout for a goalkeeper. Nicholson goes rogue with Elliot Anderson, even throwing Brian Madjo in as his Young Player pick.

Bannister keeps it simple: if Haaland scores enough to win the Golden Boot again, he probably collects the PFA gong as well.

Who Blinks First in the Dugout?

The first manager to go is always a morbid pre‑season sweepstake. This year, the finger points most often at Fulham and Hull.

Winterburn picks Alvaro Arbeloa at Fulham, saying the fit just doesn’t feel right. Watson shares that concern and also lands on Arbeloa, joking that the Spaniard can thank him when he gets his statue after defying expectations. Oldham is in the same camp, backing a poor couple of months to do for him.

Hull’s Sergej Jakirovic is the other obvious name. Soutar calls “the bloke from Hull” doomed. Nicholson also picks him. Watach says he has the expendable vibe of a bit‑part character in a horror film and doubts Hull’s owner will show much patience. Michael Lee not only tips Jakirovic to go first but predicts Hull’s owner will become a “Main Character” by sparking Greece‑Turkey beef with Evangelos Marinakis.

Tickner goes back to a familiar well and chooses Oliver Glasner at Nottingham Forest, citing Marinakis’ trigger‑happy history and the club’s revolving‑door approach to managers. Bannister fears for Regis Le Bris at Sunderland, warning that overachieving in year one might have raised expectations to a dangerous level.

Matthias Jaissle at Newcastle and the new “Diet Pep” at City are also mentioned as names who could come under early pressure, but not as the prime candidates.

Europe’s Biggest Prize: Barcelona, PSG, or Arsenal’s Next Step?

On the continent, the panel is split between a familiar trio: Barcelona, PSG and Arsenal.

Winterburn, Michael Lee and Watach all go for Barcelona, with the Rodri signing seen as the missing piece to give them the kind of total control Spain enjoyed at the World Cup. Lee adds the caveat that they still need a proper centre-back alongside Pau Cubarsi.

PSG, already on a European hot streak, get the backing of Nicholson, Oldham, Lee (if Barca don’t fix their defence) and Bannister. Bannister sees a team that has finally “clicked” in Europe and believes a three‑peat is very much on.

Arsenal are the romantic English choice. Tickner notes their steady Champions League progression – quarter‑final, semi‑final, runners-up – and says the only logical next step is to win it, even tipping them for a Premier League–Champions League double. Soutar leans on the same “science” of that trajectory and also has them lifting the trophy.

Real Madrid, inevitably, get a shout from Watson. Stead keeps his powder dry with a “simple guess” that’s not elaborated on in the panel. Nicholson admits he’d love it to be Como, but sticks with PSG as the sensible call.

What Excites Them Most?

Strip away the predictions and you get to the heart of the season: what actually excites these writers.

Winterburn relishes “so very many new managers”. Stead goes for the chaos of VAR and anatomy‑based offsides. Nicholson’s eyes are on Montrose in Scottish League One. Tickner can’t wait for the “neverending moral panic about corners”. Watson just wants Tottenham to make Dave Tickner smile. Soutar is oddly keen for the Keys and Gray podcast to return. Oldham dares to dream of Rotherham United winning more games. Michael Lee savours a Championship without VAR. Watach sums up the mood of the whole piece in five words: “New managers; uncertainty, unpredictability, chaos.”

If these predictions are anything to go by, chaos is exactly what we’re about to get.