Aston Villa Reinvents Attack with Nicolas Jackson

Aston Villa have ripped up their forward line and started again.

Nicolas Jackson is in, Ollie Watkins is on his way out, and Unai Emery has just changed the face of his attack.

Villa have completed the signing of Jackson in a deal worth up to £65m, a move that is expected to be followed by Watkins’ departure to Saudi Pro League side Al-Hilal. Jackson arrives from Chelsea as the club’s new record signing, overtaking Johan Manzambi, and walks into a dressing room already shaken by a summer of upheaval.

Morgan Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans, Lucas Digne – all gone. Johan Manzambi, Joao Gomes, Zion Suzuki, Matteo Ruggeri – all in. This is not tinkering. It is surgery.

And the scars showed on opening weekend.

Emery’s reshaped side were thrashed 4-0 at Brighton, a performance that underlined just how disjointed Villa looked without a focal point in attack. With Watkins unavailable and both Tammy Abraham and 17-year-old Brian Madjo injured, Villa kicked off the season without a recognised centre-forward. Emiliano Buendia, a creator by trade, was asked to lead the line.

Now Emery has his specialist striker.

A new kind of number nine

Jackson, 25, does not simply step into Watkins’ boots. He changes the way they fit.

Watkins, 30, leaves behind a formidable legacy: 108 goals in 278 games, the face of Villa’s surge under Emery and the symbol of their return to European prominence. But the numbers say Jackson is a very different kind of centre-forward.

On the surface, his output last season stacks up impressively. At Bayern Munich, the Senegal international scored 11 goals and supplied three assists in 1,320 minutes across all competitions. That works out at 1.0 goal involvement per 90 minutes.

Watkins, by contrast, delivered 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes for Villa – 0.6 goal involvements per 90. The Englishman carried the burden week after week. Jackson delivered in shorter, sharper bursts.

The contrast grows sharper in the final third. Jackson averaged 3.8 shots per 90 minutes to Watkins’ 2.6, and 2.2 shots on target to 1.2. His expected goals (xG) figure was higher as well: 0.7 per 90 compared with 0.5. He also took 8.5 touches in the opposition box per 90, while Watkins managed 5.6.

This is a striker who lives in dangerous areas.

That habit is not new. Since January 2020, among players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes, only Erling Haaland has posted a higher non-penalty xG per 90 than Jackson’s 0.55. He finds chances. Constantly.

Finishing them has been the issue that refuses to go away.

The finishing question

Jackson’s time at Chelsea was defined by that tension between promise and end product. In the 2023-24 Premier League season he scored 14 goals from 18.7 xG, then followed it with 10 from 12.3 xG the next campaign. The gap between chances created and chances taken fed the perception that he wastes too many big moments.

The raw numbers on “big chances” back that up to a point: he has converted 18 of 61 such opportunities in England. Watkins, though, is hardly flawless in that department, scoring 24 of 73 big chances since joining Villa in 2020.

Look a little closer at last season and the gap almost disappears. Jackson converted 19.6% of his shots and 40.9% of his big chances. Watkins’ figures? 18.9% and 43.2%. Margins, not chasms.

There is one crucial difference: workload.

Watkins started 43 matches and played almost three times as many minutes. Jackson started only 15 of his 34 appearances. Opta’s data warns that such a substitute-heavy sample can inflate per-90 numbers. What looks devastating in short bursts might look more human when stretched over a full campaign.

That is the gamble Villa are taking. Not on talent – that is obvious – but on scalability.

What happens when Villa lose the ball

Emery does not just buy forwards for what they do in the box. He buys them for what they do when they are nowhere near goal.

Here, Jackson’s profile starts to explain the attraction.

He averaged 34 high pressures per 90 minutes last season, edging Watkins’ 31.4. The real difference lies in the outcome of that work. Jackson won the ball 2.7 times per 90, compared with Watkins’ 1.8, and regained possession in the final third 0.9 times per 90 to Watkins’ 0.6.

Among Opta’s striker sample, Jackson ranked in the 88th percentile for possession won in the attacking third. Watkins sat at 43rd.

That is a huge shift in how the first line of the press behaves. Jackson does not just harry defenders; he wins the ball back in dangerous zones. For a coach as obsessed with structure and pressing triggers as Emery, that matters.

In terms of movement, the two are strikingly similar. Jackson averaged 13 runs in behind per 90, Watkins 12.7. The Englishman did make slightly more runs that ended inside the penalty area, and he offered more in the air, winning 1.2 aerial duels per 90 to Jackson’s 0.7. Watkins also carried the ball more directly towards goal.

So this is not a like-for-like clone. Some qualities leave with Watkins.

A different era up front

What arrives is a forward with a broader on-ball involvement. Jackson is five years younger, sees more of the ball, carries it more often, and creates more for others. In limited minutes last season he generated shots and high-quality chances at a rate that will excite a side gearing up for another European campaign.

The doubts are clear and fair. Can those per-90 numbers survive a heavier load? Will the finishing that frustrated Chelsea fans resurface in claret and blue? The data says he gets into the right positions more than almost anyone. The eye test says he still has work to do when the moment comes.

Yet Villa are not stepping into the unknown. Emery has coached Jackson before and understands exactly which edges he wants to sharpen. He is not just swapping a 30-year-old for a 25-year-old; he is betting that the underlying numbers point to a ceiling Jackson has not yet touched.

If Watkins completes his move to Al-Hilal and Jackson takes the number nine role, this will not simply be a change of faces at centre-forward.

It will be a change in how Aston Villa attack, press, and live with risk in the most important position on the pitch.