Inter vs Udinese: Champions Look to Avenge Last Year's Upset

A year ago, Udinese walked into San Siro and ripped up the script with a shock win over Inter. Same stadium, same fixture, same early-season stage. The mood this time? Very different.

Cristian Chivu’s champions come into Monday night with three wins from three in Serie A and a point to prove after a narrow UCL defeat at the Bernabéu. Kick-off is 19:45 BST on Matchday 4 of the 2026/27 campaign, and Inter have had almost a full week to reset after their European trip.

Inter mean business in the league

Chivu’s side have already shown both swagger and steel.

They dismantled Monza 4-1, took care of business away at Cagliari, then went blow-for-blow with Napoli in a 3-2 thriller at San Siro. That Napoli win said plenty: this Inter can grind when the game turns chaotic. These are the sort of gritty victories that underpin a serious Scudetto defence, the kind that convince a dressing room they can always “find a way”.

Europe brought a jolt. Inter fell 2-1 at Real Madrid in their first league-phase UCL fixture, a rare setback with goalkeeper Josep Martínez under the microscope after an error at the Bernabéu. Chivu didn’t flinch. He backed his keeper publicly and kept the message clear: the performance was encouraging, the margins fine.

Domestically, the numbers back up that confidence. Inter have won eight of the last 10 meetings with Udinese, with no draws in that run. The hosts are heavy favourites again, but their recent defensive wobble keeps the door slightly ajar for drama. Napoli scored twice at San Siro. Real scored twice in Madrid. This is not a watertight back line right now.

Udinese bruised but dangerous

Udinese arrive with four points from their first three league games and a growing injury list.

Kosta Runjaić’s team opened with a 1-1 draw against high-flying Como, then grabbed a valuable win away at Monza. The momentum stalled in a 2-1 home defeat to Lazio, a match that turned on two first-half injuries. Jakub Piotrowski and Oumar Solet both limped off and are doubts for Monday. Keinan Davis was also withdrawn early to manage his workload, while Nicolò Zaniolo and Giorgi Chakvetadze remain unavailable.

Those absences bite hardest at the back. Solet’s loss disrupted Udinese’s defensive structure against Lazio, and now they must cope without him at a stadium where Inter usually turn the screw.

Yet Udinese don’t fold easily. They have scored in five of their last nine visits to Inter and have not lost by more than a single goal in Serie A this season. Lazio only edged them 2-1. Their approach under Runjaić is clear: sit deep, soak pressure, and spring forward on the counter. That style doesn’t often produce heavy defeats – and it already produced a 2-1 win at this very ground against Inter at a similar point last season.

How they’re likely to line up

Inter are expected to stick with their familiar structure and star power:

Inter Milan probable XI:
J. Martínez; Bisseck, Akanji, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Çalhanoğlu, Sucic, Dimarco; Thuram, L. Martínez.

Udinese, patched up but still built to break quickly, should look something like this:

Udinese probable XI:
Okoye; Kristensen, Kabasele, Abankwah; Ehizibue, Ekkelenkamp, Karlström, Atta, Kamara; Davis, Bayo.

Goals likely at both ends

The pattern feels almost scripted: Inter to dominate, Udinese to lurk.

With Inter’s recent concession record and Udinese’s knack for nicking a goal at San Siro, backing the hosts to win while still conceding makes sense. Inter have the firepower and form; Udinese have the counter-punch and a history of making this fixture awkward.

A 2-1 home win fits the evidence. Inter’s superior quality should tell over 90 minutes, but Udinese have enough in transition to get on the scoresheet. The bet reflects that balance: Inter to win and both teams to score at odds of 2.80 with Parimatch, an implied probability of 35.7% that outstrips the straight home win price, which sits around 80% implied.

Udinese to keep it close

The schedule adds another layer. Inter put in a high-intensity shift in Madrid on Tuesday. Long European trips often leave a trace in Serie A – a fraction slower in the press, a little less zip in the legs.

Runjaić’s side are built to exploit that. Their low block and counter-attacking plan naturally limit the space for a rout. Inter’s 3-2 win over Napoli was decided by a single goal, and Udinese have yet to lose by more than one this season.

That’s where the handicap angle comes in. Udinese +2 on the 3-way handicap at odds of 2.10 with Parimatch covers an away win, a draw, or even a narrow Inter victory by a single goal. Given Udinese’s resilience and Inter’s midweek exertions, it’s a line that respects both the champions’ strength and the visitors’ stubbornness.

Lautaro’s numbers demand a goal

Then there’s Lautaro Martínez.

Two goals from 3.1 expected goals is not a red flag. It’s a warning sign for defenders that a correction is coming. His 1.18 xG per 90 minutes screams of a striker constantly arriving in the right zones, repeatedly. The finishing will catch up.

Last season, the Argentine hit 17 league goals and 22 in all competitions. Now he faces an Udinese back line missing Solet, one of its key pillars. That absence already disrupted them against Lazio; at San Siro, under sustained pressure, the cracks tend to widen.

With Inter likely to pin Udinese back for long stretches, Martínez should see a steady stream of chances. At odds of 1.75 with Parimatch – an implied probability of 57.1% – backing him to score anytime looks a fair reflection of both his underlying numbers and the state of the visitors’ defence.

Inter are chasing another title. Udinese are chasing another upset. One of them is more likely on Monday night – but if last season taught us anything, it’s that San Siro doesn’t always follow the script.