CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: UEFA Europa League Preview

CSKA Sofia host Maccabi Tel Aviv at the National Stadium Vasil Levski in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round second leg with a commanding advantage after their 3–0 “away” win in Batumi. The market still prices this as a relatively balanced contest on the night, but qualification is essentially decided unless Maccabi produce something extraordinary.

Form Deep-Dive

Using the prediction data’s league blocks, CSKA Sofia arrive in outstanding Europa League form. Their league form string is “WWDWW”, meaning they are unbeaten in five, with four wins and one draw. Across those 5 matches they have scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) and conceded only 3 (0.6 per game), with 3 clean sheets. Their attacking spread is consistent: they have scored in every 15‑minute window from 0–90 minutes, and they have not lost yet in this campaign. Defensively, they do show a slight vulnerability late on (2 of 3 goals conceded between 76–90 minutes), but overall this is a very solid profile.

Maccabi Tel Aviv’s Europa League league form reads “WWL”. In 3 matches they have 2 wins and 1 loss, with 6 goals scored (2.0 per game) and 3 conceded (1.0 per game), plus 2 clean sheets. Notably, their away attacking numbers are explosive in a small sample: 5 goals in 1 away game (average 5.0), compared to just 1 goal in 2 home matches. However, their only defeat in this run was a heavy 0–3 home loss to this same CSKA Sofia, exposing defensive frailty when facing a high‑intensity opponent.

The comparison indices from the prediction model lean towards CSKA in overall performance: form index 68 vs 32, attack 60 vs 40, and a balanced defense index of 50 vs 50. Over the last five games, CSKA’s last‑five form indicator is stronger (87 vs 67), with better attacking and comparable defensive metrics, reinforcing the picture of CSKA as the more complete and consistent side at this stage.

H2H Analysis

There is one competitive head‑to‑head in the data, and it is highly relevant: on 2026‑08‑06 in Batumi Arena, Maccabi Tel Aviv were the designated home team and lost 0–3 to CSKA Sofia in this same Europa League round. CSKA led 2–0 at half‑time and closed out a dominant victory, with Maccabi failing to score despite needing a positive first‑leg result. The prediction comparison block reflects this with an H2H index of 100 vs 0 in favour of CSKA and a goals H2H index also 100 vs 0, underlining that the only direct reference point is a comprehensive CSKA win.

Tactically, that result suggests CSKA’s pressing and transitional play trouble Maccabi significantly, and with CSKA now at home in Sofia, Maccabi must chase goals while managing the risk of conceding again. Given CSKA’s efficiency in multiple scoring windows and their habit of keeping clean sheets (3 in 5), Maccabi’s need to open up could again play into the hosts’ strengths.

Odds vs Model: Where Is the Value?

The official prediction model gives CSKA Sofia a 45% chance of winning the match, a 45% probability of a draw, and only 10% for a Maccabi Tel Aviv win. The advice is clear: “Double chance : CSKA Sofia or draw”, with the winner comment “Win or draw” attached to CSKA.

Market odds for the home win range from 2.23 to 2.41. That implies an unsmoothed probability band of roughly 41–45% for a CSKA victory on the night. Draw odds sit between 2.98 and 3.40 (implied around 29–34%), and away win odds between 2.73 and 3.14 (around 32–37%). Compared to the prediction model, bookmakers are giving Maccabi a significantly higher chance than the model’s 10% and are correspondingly more cautious on the draw.

Given the model’s very strong tilt towards “CSKA or draw” (a combined 90% probability) and CSKA’s underlying form (WWDWW, unbeaten, +6 goal difference in 5 games) plus the 3–0 first‑leg statement, the safest and most data‑aligned angle is to follow the model’s advice.

Betting Verdict:

• Primary pick: Double chance – CSKA Sofia or Draw. This aligns directly with the model’s 90% combined probability and is strongly supported by form and H2H evidence.
• For those seeking a bit more risk, the straight CSKA Sofia win is also justifiable: the model’s 45% home‑win probability is at the top end of the bookmakers’ implied range, hinting at a small edge on the hosts, especially given psychological and tactical momentum after the 3–0 first leg.