Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

This UEFA Champions League 3rd Qualifying Round second leg in Celje sets up a fascinating clash between Celje and Ararat-Armenia. The tie heads to Slovenia with Ararat-Armenia holding a narrow 2-1 advantage from the first leg in Yerevan on 4 August 2026, leaving everything to play for in this decisive return fixture.

Celje will look to make home advantage in Celje count after a mixed start to their Champions League campaign, where their matches have been high-scoring at both ends. Ararat-Armenia arrive with the confidence of a first-leg win and a historically perfect head-to-head record against Celje in European competition, but they must now prove they can manage a hostile away leg with qualification on the line.

With Champions League progression and crucial coefficient points at stake, this encounter promises tactical adjustments, attacking intent, and a tense 90 minutes as Celje chase a comeback and Ararat-Armenia aim to protect – or extend – their aggregate lead.

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Key Stats

• Celje’s Champions League campaign has produced 7 goals scored and 7 conceded across 3 matches, an average of 2.3 for and 2.3 against per game.
• Ararat-Armenia have won all competitive meetings with Celje in Europe, including 2-1 in the first leg on 4 August 2026 and 1-0 after extra time in the UEFA Europa League on 24 September 2020.
• Ararat-Armenia have kept 2 clean sheets in 5 Champions League matches this season, both at home, while failing to keep a clean sheet in either away game.

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: 7 (Celje, 3 matches) vs 9 (Ararat-Armenia, 5 matches)
• Goals Against: 7 (Celje) vs 6 (Ararat-Armenia)
• Clean Sheets: Celje 0 vs Ararat-Armenia 2

Stats from the current Champions League campaign underline the contrast between these two sides. Celje’s three matches have been wide open: 7 goals scored and 7 conceded, with no clean sheets and both teams scoring in every game. Their goal average of 2.3 scored and 2.3 conceded per match points to a side that plays expansively but leaves space at the back.

Ararat-Armenia, by contrast, have been more controlled at home and more vulnerable away. Across five Champions League fixtures, they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. They have recorded 2 clean sheets in 3 home matches but conceded 5 goals in 2 away games (2.5 per away match). That pattern suggests Ararat-Armenia can be opened up on their travels, something Celje must exploit if they are to overturn the first-leg deficit.

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Key Matchups

Celje attack vs Sandro Lima

Celje’s goals in this Champions League run have been shared around, with 7 goals in 3 matches and no single standout scorer in the available stats. Their strength lies in collective attacking play and a willingness to commit numbers forward, reflected in consistent scoring (they have yet to fail to score in the competition).

Ararat-Armenia’s main reference point in attack is Sandro Lima. The Brazilian forward has made 5 appearances and 5 starts, scoring 1 goal so far. Although his minutes total (79) suggests he has often been withdrawn early or used in short bursts, he remains a key figure as a penalty-box presence and focal point for Ararat-Armenia’s attacks. Celje’s defence, which has conceded in every Champions League game and 7 times overall, will need to track his movement and avoid giving him space in transition, especially with Ararat-Armenia likely to counter with their aggregate advantage.

Zidane Banjaqui vs Celje midfield

Zidane Banjaqui has been one of Ararat-Armenia’s most influential midfielders in this Champions League campaign, despite limited minutes. In 5 appearances (2 starts) and 18 minutes recorded, he has provided 1 assist and picked up 2 yellow cards. That combination of creativity and aggression makes him a key figure between the lines.

Celje’s midfield, which has helped produce a strong scoring record but has also seen the side concede 7 times, must balance pressing Banjaqui to limit his playmaking while avoiding unnecessary fouls in dangerous areas. His disciplinary record (2 yellows) also hints at a player who can be drawn into challenges, which Celje may look to exploit by running at him and forcing defensive decisions.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These sides are becoming familiar European opponents, and history has favoured Ararat-Armenia so far. Both previous ties have been tight, low-margin contests, but each time the Armenian side has found a way to progress.

• 4 August 2026: Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje (UEFA Champions League, 3rd Qualifying Round)
• 24 September 2020: Ararat-Armenia 1-0 Celje (UEFA Europa League, 3rd Qualifying Round, after extra time)

Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction

The underlying numbers and recent form point to a finely balanced second leg. The prediction model gives Ararat-Armenia a 45% chance of winning the match outright, with the draw also at 45% and Celje at just 10%. That distribution, combined with the “win or draw” note for Ararat-Armenia, suggests the visitors are more likely to avoid defeat than to lose, even away from home.

Form indices back that up: Ararat-Armenia’s last-five form sits at 60 compared to Celje’s 44, and the overall comparison index favours Ararat-Armenia 58.2 to 41.8. However, the Poisson-based index leans towards Celje (63 to 37), reflecting their higher scoring rate and the expectation that they will push aggressively at home. Given Celje’s attacking output and defensive vulnerability, and Ararat-Armenia’s strong record in the head-to-head and ability to manage tight knockout ties, a high-intensity, relatively open game with both teams scoring looks likely.

Predicted Score: Celje 1-1 Ararat-Armenia

Celje Recent Form

Celje’s recent Champions League form can be summed up as mixed but entertaining. Across 3 matches they have recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat. They average 2.3 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game, with no clean sheets but also no blanks in attack. Their biggest win so far has been 3-2 at home, while their only defeat came 2-1 away – the first leg of this tie in Yerevan. That pattern suggests Celje are competitive in every match but struggle to control games defensively.

Ararat-Armenia Recent Form

Ararat-Armenia’s Champions League form line reads WLWLW over 5 fixtures, reflecting an inconsistent but generally positive campaign. They have won all 3 home matches and lost both away games, underlining a clear home-away split. Offensively they average 1.8 goals per match, while defensively they concede 1.2 on average, with 2 clean sheets recorded at home. Away from Yerevan they have conceded 5 goals in 2 games, which is a concern heading into this second leg, but their ability to win key knockout matches – including both previous ties against Celje – remains a major asset.

Celje Possible Starting Lineup

Potential key players for Celje (squad list): GK options include Ž. Frelih, L. Kolar, Žan-Luk Leban, and S. Sluga; defenders such as Ł. Bejger, David Castro, A. Dionkou, L. Koútris, P. Širvys, A. Tutyškinas, G. Vodeb, N. Vukasović, D. Vukliševıč, and I. Ćalušić; midfielders including M. Zabukovnik, Papa Mustapha Daniel, D. Hrka, F. Jevšenak, M. Kvesić, T. Letonja, R. Požeg, J. Pranjić, S. Sešlar, M. Avdyli, Y. Dukuly, M. Ivanšek, V. Tusha, and B. Verbič; and attacking options A. Kotnik, A. Kucys, M. Poplatnik, and D. Suhovrsnik.

With no fixed formation data for this specific fixture, Celje are likely to continue alternating between 4-4-2, 4-3-3, and 3-4-3 as they have across their 3 Champions League matches. Expect an attack-minded setup with at least three forward-thinking players, as they must chase the tie. The depth in midfield and wide areas (players like B. Verbič and A. Kotnik) gives them flexibility to overload the flanks, but they will need better balance to avoid being exposed in transition, where Ararat-Armenia can be dangerous.

Ararat-Armenia Possible Starting Lineup

Key squad options for Ararat-Armenia include goalkeepers S. Badalyan, Joao Bravim, and A. Nersesyan; defenders such as E. Grigoryan, K. Hovhannisyan, Junior Julio, Luís Felipe, A. Malis, Hugo Oliveira, Bruno Pereira, and Bruno Wilson; midfielders A. Tera, A. Ambartsumyan, M. Ayvazyan, J. Balanta, Zidane Banjaqui, M. Carlier, M. Hovhannisyan, K. Muradyan, and E. Poghosyan; and forwards P. Ayongo, A. Eloyan, França, A. Ndour, Sandro Lima, A. Serobyan, and Z. Shaghoyan.

Ararat-Armenia have predominantly used a 4-3-3 shape (4 times) with an occasional switch to 3-4-3. Protecting a 2-1 lead away from home, they are likely to stick with a 4-3-3 that can morph into a 4-5-1 without the ball. The presence of dynamic wide players and a central striker like Sandro Lima gives them a strong counter-attacking threat, while midfielders such as Zidane Banjaqui and J. Balanta can help control tempo. Their challenge will be to maintain defensive solidity on the road, where they have conceded 2.5 goals per game in this campaign.

Celje Team News

No significant absences reported.

Ararat-Armenia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Celje:

• None reported.

Ararat-Armenia:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Celje vs Ararat-Armenia

Exactly 3 distinct betting angles based on current odds, form, and matchup dynamics:

• Result Tip: Back Celje to win (Home). The market strongly favours Celje at home, with odds ranging from 1.36 to 1.48 across major bookmakers. That implies an approximate probability between about 67.6% (1 ÷ 1.48 × 100) and 73.5% (1 ÷ 1.36 × 100). While the prediction model leans towards Ararat-Armenia avoiding defeat, the pricing reflects Celje’s strong home scoring record and the need to chase the tie. For punters following the market rather than the model, Celje to win at around 1.40–1.48 is the primary result angle.
• Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Celje’s matches have averaged 4.6 total goals (7 for, 7 against in 3 games), and Ararat-Armenia’s have averaged 3.0 (9 for, 6 against in 5 games). The first leg finished 2-1, and both teams have scored in every Champions League match they have played this season. The predictions advice also explicitly points to “+1.5 goals”, reinforcing the expectation of at least two goals in this second leg. Look for over 1.5 goals as a relatively safe goals market angle.
• Value Tip: Draw or Ararat-Armenia (Double Chance). The prediction block gives Ararat-Armenia a 45% chance of winning and the draw another 45%, with only 10% assigned to a Celje victory from that perspective. Combining that with Ararat-Armenia’s perfect head-to-head record against Celje and their ability to manage knockout ties, the double chance (draw or Ararat-Armenia) offers an interesting value angle against a market that heavily favours the home win. Exact odds for the double chance market are not listed, but they will be significantly higher than the short home price and could appeal to those trusting historical and form-based indicators.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.