Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction: Preview and Betting Tips

Benfica welcome AZ Alkmaar to Lisbon on 28 January 2027 in the UEFA Europa League League Stage, with the Portuguese side looking to turn their early continental momentum into a statement home win. Although the venue name is not listed, the setting in Lisbon and Benfica’s attacking numbers in Europe this term make this one of the standout ties on this League Stage matchday.

In the current Europa League standings, AZ Alkmaar are listed 3rd in the League Round group table with Benfica 4th, but both are on 0 points with no group games played yet. That makes this a pure tone‑setter: AZ aiming to show they can travel and compete, Benfica intent on proving that their prolific Europa League attack can carry into the League Stage against a side whose continental data is still a blank slate.

Stats suggest this Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar clash should attract plenty of interest from fans and bettors alike. Benfica’s Europa League form line of LWWDWW and their 19 goals across 6 matches underline why they are being viewed as one of the more dangerous attacking outfits in this year’s competition, while AZ arrive as a tactical unknown in this specific tournament context.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Key Stats

• Benfica come into the League Stage with a Europa League form sequence of LWWDWW and 0 goals conceded at home in terms of defeats (3 home wins, 0 home losses across 3 home fixtures).
• There are no recorded recent head-to-head meetings between Benfica and AZ Alkmaar in the available data.
• Across 6 Europa League fixtures this season, Benfica have scored 19 goals (average 3.2 per match) and conceded just 6, with only 1 clean sheet but 4 penalties scored from 4 attempts.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 4 vs 3
• Points: 0 vs 0
• Goals For: 0 vs 0
• Goals Against: 0 vs 0
• Clean Sheets: Benfica 1 (tournament statistics), AZ Alkmaar 0 (tournament statistics)

On paper, the League Stage table has little to separate these sides: both start on 0 points and have yet to register a goal for or against in the group standings. AZ Alkmaar’s 3rd place and Benfica’s 4th are essentially placeholders before a ball is kicked in this phase.

The deeper Europa League statistics, however, paint a very different picture. Benfica have already played 6 matches in this campaign, winning 4, drawing 1 and losing just once. They have been devastating at home, scoring 14 goals in 3 home fixtures (an average of 4.7 per game) and conceding only 2. AZ, by contrast, have no Europa League fixtures logged this season in the statistical record: 0 matches played, 0 goals scored, 0 conceded. That lack of data doesn’t mean they are weak, but it does mean Benfica arrive with far more proven European rhythm and firepower.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Key Matchups

V. Pavlidis vs C. Stengs

Vangelis Pavlidis has been the standout name in Benfica’s Europa League campaign so far. Listed as both the top scorer and joint-top assist provider in the competition for Benfica, he has produced 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 appearances. He has also picked up 1 yellow card, underlining his combative edge in the final third. Operating as a forward, his output of 6 direct goal involvements in 3 matches makes him the clear focal point of Benfica’s attack.

For AZ Alkmaar, there are no specific Europa League scoring or assist stats available, but C. Stengs stands out in the squad list as one of the most experienced and creative attacking midfielders. With AZ’s continental numbers still at zero, much of their attacking responsibility is likely to fall on his shoulders. The duel between Pavlidis’ ruthless efficiency in front of goal and Stengs’ ability to orchestrate chances for AZ will go a long way to deciding whether this becomes a one-sided Benfica show or a genuinely balanced contest.

Rafa vs J. Hornkamp

Rafa has been another key figure for Benfica in the Europa League. The 33‑year‑old forward has 2 goals and 1 assist from 4 appearances, contributing reliably alongside Pavlidis. He has managed to stay disciplined as well, with no yellow or red cards recorded, and his blend of movement and end product gives Benfica a second major threat that opponents cannot ignore.

On the AZ side, J. Hornkamp profiles as a central attacking outlet among the listed attackers. While there are no Europa League goal or assist figures yet for him, his role as an attacker suggests he will be one of the primary targets for AZ’s forward play. If Hornkamp can occupy Benfica’s centre-backs and provide a finishing edge, he could test a defence that, despite strong overall numbers, has conceded in four of their six Europa League matches.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

There are no recent recorded head-to-head meetings between Benfica and AZ Alkmaar in the available Europa League data. This adds an element of tactical intrigue, with both coaching staffs facing a fresh matchup rather than a familiar opponent.

Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Everything we have points to a Benfica side already in full Europa League stride facing an AZ Alkmaar team whose European form is, statistically, an unknown. Benfica’s last five matches in the competition show 18 goals scored and just 4 conceded, with their last-five attack index at 100 and defensive record conceding only 0.8 per game. Their League Stage form line of LWWDWW underlines a team that has learned to respond well after setbacks.

AZ, by contrast, have no fixtures logged in this Europa League campaign, and their last-five metrics all sit at 0. That does not reflect domestic form but does highlight a lack of current European sample size. The comparison model gives Benfica a huge edge in form and attack, while AZ’s defensive index is listed as 100 in the comparison block, which likely reflects the absence of conceded goals in a tiny or non-existent sample rather than a proven strength.

With the predictions block assigning 33% to a home win, 33% to a draw and 33% to an away win, the raw probabilities are completely balanced, but that appears more a reflection of uncertainty than true parity. Given Benfica’s 3.2 goals per match in this Europa League campaign and AZ’s lack of recorded action, the smarter read is a narrow Benfica win rather than a high-scoring rout, especially in a first League Stage outing where both may be slightly cautious.

Predicted Score: Benfica 2-1 AZ Alkmaar

Benfica Recent Form

Benfica’s Europa League recent form is excellent, with a sequence of LWWDWW across 6 matches. They have taken 4 wins and 1 draw in that run, scoring 19 goals and conceding only 6. At home they have been particularly dominant, winning all 3 fixtures with a 14–2 aggregate, and they have yet to fail to score in any Europa League outing this season.

AZ Alkmaar Recent Form

AZ Alkmaar have no recorded Europa League fixtures in the current campaign, so there is no recent continental form line to draw from. Their last-five metrics in the competition sit at 0 for attack and 0 for defence, which reflects a lack of data rather than on‑pitch struggles. This makes their true level in this specific tournament context harder to gauge ahead of the trip to Lisbon.

Benfica Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Trubin; Defenders: C. Lenglet, A. Bah, Tomás Araújo, S. Dahl; Midfielders: João Palhinha, L. Barreiro, H. Sudakov, J. Kamiński; Forwards: V. Pavlidis, Rafa.

Benfica have a deep squad with multiple options in every line. At the back, C. Lenglet and Tomás Araújo provide height and experience in central defence, while A. Bah offers an attacking outlet from full-back and has already registered 1 assist in the Europa League. In midfield, João Palhinha and L. Barreiro give a strong defensive shield, complemented by H. Sudakov and J. Kamiński, both of whom have chipped in with assists. Up front, the combination of V. Pavlidis (5 goals, 1 assist) and Rafa (2 goals, 1 assist) looks particularly dangerous, supported by options like D. Lukebakio, J. Durán and G. Prestianni off the bench.

AZ Alkmaar Possible Starting Lineup

GK: R. Owusu-Oduro; Defenders: W. Goes, W. Hoedt, M. Chávez, D. Kasius; Midfielders: J. Clasie, P. Koopmeiners, K. Smit, V. Byskov; Forwards: C. Stengs, J. Hornkamp.

AZ Alkmaar’s squad list suggests a blend of experience and youth. At the back, W. Hoedt and W. Goes provide a left‑footed and right‑footed central pairing, with D. Kasius and M. Chávez as energetic full-backs. In midfield, veterans like J. Clasie and P. Koopmeiners can control tempo, while younger players such as K. Smit and V. Byskov add legs and creativity. In attack, C. Stengs will likely drift between the lines to link play, with J. Hornkamp offering a more traditional striking presence and Weslley Patati or M. Meerdink as alternative options.

Benfica Team News

No significant absences reported.

AZ Alkmaar Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Benfica:

• None reported.

AZ Alkmaar:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar

Exactly 3 betting ideas based purely on the available statistics and probability profile:

• Result Tip: Back Benfica to win. While the predictions block lists 33% for each outcome, Benfica’s Europa League form of 4 wins and 1 draw in 6 matches, plus 14 goals in 3 home games, makes them the more reliable side. AZ have no recorded Europa League fixtures this season, so the risk lies more with the unknown than with Benfica’s level.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 total goals. Benfica’s matches in this Europa League campaign have seen an average of 4.2 total goals (19 scored, 6 conceded in 6 games). Their goals-for thresholds show they have gone over 2.5 in 4 of those 6 fixtures, and they average 4.7 goals scored per home match. Even with AZ’s data blank, Benfica’s attacking output alone points towards a game with at least three goals.
• Value Tip: V. Pavlidis to score anytime. With 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 Europa League appearances, Pavlidis is the competition’s standout forward for Benfica. He is also among the leaders for yellow cards, indicating he is heavily involved in duels and penalty‑box action. In a match where Benfica are likely to dominate territory and chances, backing Pavlidis to find the net again offers strong value.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.