AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

AC Milan open their UEFA Europa League League Stage campaign with a glamour tie against in-form Benfica in Milan on 16 September 2026. It is a heavyweight clash between two continental giants, with the Italian side looking to reassert themselves in Europe and the Portuguese visitors arriving as one of the early pace-setters in the competition.

While Milan enter this League Stage with a clean slate and no competitive Europa League minutes yet this season, Benfica already have six matches of Europa League action behind them and sit 4th in the overall League Round ranking. That contrast in recent continental workload and form will be central to any AC Milan vs Benfica prediction.

For AC Milan, ranked 23rd in the League Round table with 0 points from 0 games, this is about setting the tone at home and proving they can match one of the most explosive attacks in the competition. Benfica, meanwhile, arrive with momentum, goals and a deep cast of attacking threats, aiming to turn this marquee away trip into another statement result.

AC Milan vs Benfica Key Stats

• Benfica are ranked 4th in the UEFA Europa League League Round standings, while AC Milan are 23rd, both with 0 points but very different recent European form.
• The last meeting between these sides on 28 July 2019 in the International Champions Cup finished AC Milan 0-1 Benfica at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
• In their current Europa League campaign, Benfica have scored 19 goals and conceded 6 across 6 matches, averaging 3.2 goals for and 1.0 against per game, with 1 clean sheet.

AC Milan vs Benfica — Tale of the Tape

• Position: 23 vs 4
• Points: 0 vs 0
• Goals For: 0 vs 0 (standings to date)
• Goals Against: 0 vs 0 (standings to date)
• Clean Sheets: AC Milan 0 (tournament statistics), Benfica 1 (tournament statistics)

The standings table is still effectively blank in terms of goals and points, but the ranking positions tell a story. AC Milan are listed 23rd in the League Round, with no matches yet played. Benfica, by contrast, occupy 4th place, reflecting an impressive Europa League body of work already in this campaign.

Benfica’s Europa League statistics underline their attacking edge: 19 goals in 6 fixtures, including 14 at home and 5 away, with a highest home win of 6-1 and an away victory of 3-1. They have failed to score in none of their matches and average 3.2 goals per game. Defensively they concede 1.0 per match on average, which is solid rather than elite, but combined with their firepower it has been more than enough to generate four wins and just one defeat. Milan, by contrast, are an unknown quantity in this Europa League season, with no fixtures, no goals and no form line yet on the board.

AC Milan vs Benfica Key Matchups

AC Milan midfield unit vs V. Pavlidis

Without a standout Milan scorer in the Europa League data, the key battle for the hosts will be how their midfield and defensive structure cope with Benfica’s talisman V. Pavlidis. The Greek forward has been the competition’s outstanding attacker so far for Benfica, with 5 goals and 1 assist in just 3 appearances. He also features at the top of Benfica’s assists and yellow cards lists, underlining how central he is to everything they do in the final third.

Pavlidis’ combination of goals and creativity means Milan’s double pivot and centre-backs must restrict service into him and track his movement between the lines. If they cannot contain him, Benfica’s attack — already averaging 3.2 goals per game — will fancy their chances of breaching Milan more than once.

AC Milan wide defenders vs Rafa and supporting cast

Another crucial duel comes on the flanks, where Milan’s full-backs and wide midfielders will be tested by Rafa and Benfica’s supporting attackers. Rafa has 2 goals and 1 assist from 4 Europa League appearances, providing penetration and end product. Around him, A. Schjelderup, D. Lukebakio, J. Durán and G. Prestianni have all chipped in with 1 goal and, in the case of Schjelderup and Lukebakio, 1 assist each.

Benfica’s ability to spread goals and assists across multiple forwards and attacking midfielders makes them hard to defend: shutting down Pavlidis alone will not be enough. Milan’s wide defenders must win their individual battles, prevent overloads and cut out cut-backs from the byline, or the visitors’ variety of scorers could quickly tilt the tie in their favour.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These clubs have met rarely in recent years, but the most recent encounter still offers a small reference point for bettors and analysts.

• 28 July 2019: AC Milan 0-1 Benfica (International Champions Cup)

AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction

All the available indicators lean towards a strong Benfica performance, even if the market leans slightly the other way. Benfica’s Europa League recent form is excellent: a league form string of LWWDWW, 4 wins in 6 matches, 19 goals scored and just 6 conceded. Their last five competitive outings in the competition have produced 18 goals scored and only 4 conceded, with their last-five form index at 87 out of 100, attack at 100 and defence at 76.

AC Milan, by contrast, enter this fixture with no Europa League matches played this season and therefore no recent tournament form to draw on. That lack of competitive rhythm at this level, combined with Benfica’s proven attacking output, suggests the visitors will create the better chances even away from home.

The prediction model gives Benfica a 50% chance of victory, with the draw also at 50% and AC Milan at 0%. That binary split between draw and away win, coupled with Benfica’s prior 1-0 success over Milan in 2019, points to a tight contest in which the Portuguese side have the edge but may have to work hard to break down the hosts.

Predicted Score: AC Milan 1-2 Benfica

AC Milan Recent Form

AC Milan have no recorded Europa League form for this season yet. With 0 matches played, 0 goals scored and 0 conceded in the standings and team statistics, they come into this League Stage opener as a tactical unknown in continental terms. The lack of a form string means we cannot infer momentum — Milan effectively start from a blank slate, relying on home advantage and squad quality rather than established Europa League rhythm.

Benfica Recent Form

Benfica’s recent Europa League form is excellent. Their league form sequence of LWWDWW reflects 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in 6 matches, with 19 goals scored and 6 conceded. At home they have been particularly devastating, scoring 14 and conceding just 2 across 3 fixtures, but even away they have netted 5 in 3 games.

In their last five Europa League outings, Benfica have scored 18 goals (an average of 3.6 per game) and conceded only 4 (0.8 per game). They have not failed to score once in the competition so far and have one clean sheet. Their attack is firing at full capacity, and their defensive numbers are more than adequate to support an aggressive game plan.

AC Milan Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Maignan; Defenders: D. Bartesaghi, K. De Winter, M. Gabbia, F. Tomori; Midfielders: Y. Musah, R. Loftus-Cheek, L. Modrić; Forwards: C. Pulišić, Gonçalo Ramos, S. Chukwueze.

Milan have a deep and balanced squad, with Mike Maignan providing authority in goal and a defensive pool including F. Tomori, M. Gabbia and K. De Winter. In midfield, the blend of Y. Musah’s energy, R. Loftus-Cheek’s ball-carrying and the experience of L. Modrić offers control and creativity. Up front, options such as Gonçalo Ramos, C. Pulišić and S. Chukwueze give Milan the tools to threaten Benfica’s back line in different ways. With no Europa League-specific lineups recorded yet, tactical flexibility is high, but a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 shape looks likely given the profile of the squad.

Benfica Possible Starting Lineup

GK: A. Trubin; Defenders: A. Bah, C. Lenglet, Tomás Araújo, S. Dahl; Midfielders: Joã o Palhinha, E. Barrenechea, H. Sudakov; Forwards: Rafa, V. Pavlidis, J. Kamiński.

Benfica’s Europa League statistics show they have predominantly used a 4-2-3-1 and 4-1-3-2 setup, with 3 and 2 matches respectively in those formations. A. Trubin is the likely starter in goal, protected by a back line that includes C. Lenglet and Tomás Araújo, both of whom have chipped in with goals in the competition. In midfield, Joã o Palhinha and E. Barrenechea offer defensive stability, while H. Sudakov contributes creativity with 1 assist from 4 appearances.

Further forward, Rafa supports main striker V. Pavlidis, who has 5 goals and 1 assist, while J. Kamiński adds width and another creative outlet with 1 assist in 4 games. Benfica’s bench is also rich in attacking options such as D. Lukebakio, A. Schjelderup, J. Durán and G. Prestianni, allowing them to change the dynamic of the game in the second half.

AC Milan Team News

No significant absences reported.

Benfica Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

AC Milan:

• None reported.

Benfica:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: AC Milan vs Benfica

Here are three data-driven betting angles for this Europa League clash:

• Result Tip: Draw or Benfica (Double Chance). The prediction model allocates 0% to a Milan win, 50% to a draw and 50% to a Benfica win, effectively giving the visitors and the stalemate equal billing. The 1X2 market, however, makes Milan a narrow favourite, with home odds ranging from 2.05 to 2.14 (implied probability roughly 46.7%–48.8%), draws at 3.40–3.62 (27.6%–29.4%) and Benfica at 3.20–3.49 (28.7%–31.3%). Given Benfica’s strong Europa League form and attacking output, backing Benfica not to lose (covering both draw and away win) looks a sensible way to oppose the short home price.
• Goals Tip: Over 2.5 goals. Benfica’s Europa League matches have been high scoring: 19 goals for and 6 against in 6 games, averaging 4.2 total goals per match. They have gone over common goal thresholds regularly, with 4 of their 6 games finishing over 2.5 goals. Their attack has not failed to score once, and their defence, while decent, still concedes at a rate of 1.0 per game. Against a talented Milan frontline at home, another open contest with at least three goals is a realistic scenario. Use the over/under odds from your chosen bookmaker to price this angle.
• Value Tip: V. Pavlidis to score anytime. Pavlidis is the standout attacking figure in this Europa League campaign for Benfica, with 5 goals and 1 assist in 3 appearances. He also tops the club’s yellow card and assist charts, underlining his central role in the final third. With Benfica averaging 3.2 goals per game and creating chances from multiple wide and midfield sources (Rafa, Schjelderup, Lukebakio, Kamiński and others all with assists), Pavlidis should see opportunities in Milan. If the anytime scorer market prices him at anything longer than a short favourite, his current output suggests genuine value.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.