Premier League Golden Boot Race: Can Anyone Challenge Haaland?

Early Favorites for Premier League Top Scorer 2026/27

The new Premier League season is almost here, and the odds for the top scorer already highlight an intriguing battle for the Golden Boot. Erling Haaland enters as the player to beat after dominating previous seasons.

We examined the top contenders, their odds, and who might realistically take the prize this year.

• Player: Erling HaalandClub: Manchester CityOdds: 4/6Decimal Odds: 1.67Implied Probability: 60.00%
• Player: Alexander IsakClub: LiverpoolOdds: 9/1Decimal Odds: 10.00Implied Probability: 10.00%
• Player: Igor ThiagoClub: BrentfordOdds: 12/1Decimal Odds: 13.00Implied Probability: 7.69%
• Player: Ollie WatkinsClub: Aston VillaOdds: 16/1Decimal Odds: 17.00Implied Probability: 5.88%
• Player: Joao PedroClub: ChelseaOdds: 16/1Decimal Odds: 17.00Implied Probability: 5.88%

Odds by bet365 as of 5 August 2026.

Recent Changes in Top Scorer Odds

• 5 August 2026: Haaland remains firmly favored. Odds for Isak, Thiago, and Watkins have slipped a bit; Pedro's odds stay steady.
• 23 July 2026: Haaland started as clear favorite at 8/11. Isak was next at 8/1, with Thiago, Watkins, and Pedro rounding out the top five.

Top Contenders Breakdown

Manchester City: Haaland’s Dominance

After netting 27 goals last season and clinching his third Golden Boot in four years, Haaland looks set to lead again. Manchester City's chance creation remains elite, and Haaland’s central role gives him an edge. His 4/6 odds show a strong belief he’ll top the charts again, but this leaves little room for injury or dips in form.

Liverpool: Isak’s Fitness Key

Alexander Isak stands as the second favorite, known for clinical finishing and smart movement. His injury history, especially a tough ankle and fibula fracture last season, raises questions. If he stays fit, he could push Haaland hard, but his odds depend on consistent availability.

Brentford: Can Thiago Repeat His Breakthrough?

Igor Thiago surprised many with 22 goals last season, second only to Haaland. His strength and positioning make him dangerous. Yet, replicating such a standout season is tough as opponents adapt and Brentford likely create fewer chances than the big clubs.

Aston Villa: Watkins’ Consistency

Ollie Watkins scored 16 goals last campaign and remains key under Unai Emery. While reliable, he has never hit a 25-goal mark, which seems necessary to challenge Haaland. Still, he’s capable of ranking among the top scorers again.

Chelsea: Joao Pedro’s Chance to Shine

New to Chelsea, Joao Pedro scored 15 league goals last season. With penalty duties and technical skill, he could boost his tally if he becomes Chelsea’s main striker. Rotation and competition may limit this, though.

Our Dark Horse Pick: Viktor Gyokeres at 20/1

Though Haaland is the obvious choice, the price feels short. Viktor Gyokeres intrigues us at 20/1. Last season, he scored 14 league goals adapting to Arsenal and the Premier League. A full season together with Arsenal’s creative players might see him improve significantly. Competition for minutes with Kai Havertz remains a factor, but the odds give some margin for risk.

Top 20 Premier League Top Scorer Odds 2026/27

• Erling Haaland (Manchester City) - 4/6 (1.67) 60.00%
• Alexander Isak (Liverpool) - 9/1 (10.00) 10.00%
• Igor Thiago (Brentford) - 12/1 (13.00) 7.69%
• Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) - 16/1 (17.00) 5.88%
• Joao Pedro (Chelsea) - 16/1 (17.00) 5.88%
• Benjamin Sesko (Manchester United) - 20/1 (21.00) 4.76%
• Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal) - 20/1 (21.00) 4.76%
• Antoine Semenyo (Manchester City) - 25/1 (26.00) 3.85%
• Dominic Solanke (Tottenham Hotspur) - 33/1 (34.00) 2.94%
• Cole Palmer (Chelsea) - 33/1 (34.00) 2.94%
• Kai Havertz (Arsenal) - 40/1 (41.00) 2.44%
• Yoane Wissa (Newcastle United) - 40/1 (41.00) 2.44%
• Bryan Mbeumo (Manchester United) - 50/1 (51.00) 1.96%
• Cody Gakpo (Liverpool) - 50/1 (51.00) 1.96%
• Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds United) - 50/1 (51.00) 1.96%
• Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace) - 50/1 (51.00) 1.96%
• Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest) - 50/1 (51.00) 1.96%
• Morgan Rogers (Chelsea) - 50/1 (51.00) 1.96%
• Nick Woltemade (Newcastle United) - 50/1 (51.00) 1.96%
• All Others – 66/1+ (67.00+) 1.49% or less

Odds accurate as of 5 August 2026 from bet365.

Last 10 Premier League Golden Boot Winners

• 2025/26: Erling Haaland - 27 goals
• 2024/25: Mohamed Salah - 29 goals
• 2023/24: Erling Haaland - 27 goals
• 2022/23: Erling Haaland - 36 goals
• 2021/22: Son Heung-min & Mohamed Salah - 23 goals
• 2020/21: Harry Kane - 23 goals
• 2019/20: Jamie Vardy - 23 goals
• 2018/19: Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane & Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang - 22 goals
• 2017/18: Mohamed Salah - 32 goals
• 2016/17: Harry Kane - 29 goals

Tips for Betting on Premier League Top Scorer

• Study Player and Team Form: Don't just rely on reputation. Look at how many chances a team creates, injury records, and whether a player takes penalties or free kicks.
• Compare Odds Across Bookmakers: Prices can differ, especially beyond the favorites. Shop around for better value.
• Take Advantage of Promotions: Many sites offer enhanced odds or free bets. Check terms carefully before using them.
• Watch Mid-Season Changes: Injuries, form shifts, and tactical tweaks can affect odds during the season. International tournaments may also impact player availability.
• Look for Value in Outsiders: New signings or emerging talents might be undervalued early on and could shorten odds as the season goes on.

Frequently Asked Questions

• Who leads the Golden Boot odds for 2026/27? Erling Haaland is the favorite with odds of 4/6.
• Where can I find the best odds? Oddspedia compares odds from top bookmakers and updates them regularly.
• Are there bonuses for Premier League betting? Yes, many bookmakers offer promotions like free bets and enhanced odds, but always check the fine print.
• Where to get Premier League predictions? Expert tips and accumulator selections are available for each matchweek with detailed analysis.
• What other Premier League bets exist? Beyond top scorer markets, you can bet on next manager sacked or league winner odds.