Liverpool's Defensive Struggles vs Atlético Madrid's Tactics

Liverpool and Atlético Madrid meet again under the Anfield lights on Wednesday, and the script feels familiar: a Liverpool side still finding its shape, and Diego Simeone arriving with a plan to suffocate, frustrate and pounce.

Liverpool’s defence still looks open

Iraola’s team have stumbled out of the blocks defensively. Four goals conceded in their first two Premier League games, both ending in draws, told their own story. The back line is being patched together on the fly, with Ronald Araújo shunted to right-back because Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni are out.

It looks like a unit still under construction rather than a finished product, and that’s exactly the kind of back line Simeone relishes targeting.

Atlético know this ground and this fixture. They won 3-2 at Anfield in 2019/20 and came from 2-0 down here last season. They don’t fear the noise or the chaos. They tend to feed off it.

The market currently suggests a 46.5% implied chance that Atlético avoid defeat. That feels conservative given the evidence. Simeone’s side have never actually won a league phase game against English opposition, but they don’t need to rip up that statistic to make this angle work. A draw is enough.

Bet 1 – Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid:
Draw or Atlético (Double Chance) @ 23/20 with Sky Bet

Isak sharp, hungry… and carrying Liverpool’s threat

At the other end of the pitch, Alexander Isak is starting to look like the centrepiece of Iraola’s attack.

Three goals in three Premier League games this season, including a ruthless brace at Ipswich last Friday, underline the shift. He needed just nine minutes to score twice at Portman Road, with Cody Gakpo providing the assist for all three of his goals so far this campaign.

Compare that to his debut season: four goals in 22 appearances. The contrast is stark. He looks fitter, lighter on his feet, and far more decisive in the box.

Atlético’s defence is hardly rock solid right now. They were cut apart in a 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao and still look unsettled. That should give Isak encouragement.

There is one obvious caveat: his Champions League record. One goal in 13 appearances in this competition is a poor return for a striker of his talent. But form matters, and right now his short-term numbers are strong enough to challenge the implied 47.6% chance of him scoring.

Bet 2 – Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid:
Alexander Isak anytime goalscorer @ 11/10 with Sky Bet

Simeone ready to drag the game into his territory

For all Liverpool’s attacking names, the real concern sits in a different column: chance creation.

They are 19th in the Premier League for big chances created, with just four in three games. Brighton, by contrast, have carved out 15 in the same period. That’s a jarring statistic for a side boasting Florian Wirtz, Gakpo and Isak.

Simeone will already have circled that weakness. Pablo Barrios and Morten Hjulmand will sit in front of the Atlético defence, clogging the spaces Wirtz loves to drift into. Behind them, Jan Oblak remains the calm, reliable presence who has bailed this team out more times than they can count.

Atlético also carry their own punch. They have scored seven times in their last four league matches, and Julian Alvarez is set to return to the starting XI, adding another layer of menace to their attack.

Yet Simeone will not turn this into a shootout. He will slow the game, narrow it, and try to turn Anfield into a tangle of duels and stoppages. With the under 2.5 goals line trading at an implied 42.2%, the numbers leave room to back a tight contest.

Bet 3 – Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid:
Under 2.5 goals @ 11/8 with Sky Bet

Form, lineups and the night ahead

Liverpool have taken five points from their first three league fixtures. They conceded twice in each of their opening two games before tightening up in a 2-0 win at Ipswich, where Isak’s brace settled the nerves and hinted at a more ruthless edge.

Iraola still has problems with availability. Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni are out, while Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo were not registered for Champions League duty. The squad looks competitive, but not yet complete.

Atlético arrive on Merseyside still nursing the bruises from that 3-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao. Even so, they sit sixth in La Liga with seven points from four games, a platform rather than a crisis.

Simeone is expected to hand Julian Alvarez his first start of the season, with Cristian Romero pushing for his own full debut since joining the club. Alexander Sorloth (thigh) and Arnau Ortiz (suspension) are ruled out.

Probable lineups

Liverpool expected XI:
Alisson; Kerkez, Araújo, Jacquet, van Dijk; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Barcola; Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak

Atlético Madrid expected XI:
Oblak; Llorente, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo; Giuliano Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Lookman; Baena, Álvarez

Prediction

The last time these two met at Anfield on Matchday 1, Liverpool edged a 3-2 thriller. This feels different. Tighter. More controlled.

With Liverpool still ironing out defensive kinks and Atlético built to spoil and strike, a stalemate looms large.

Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Atlético Madrid
Goalscorers prediction: Liverpool – Isak; Atlético Madrid – Álvarez

If that plays out, Iraola’s project stays on track without truly convincing, while Simeone walks away with exactly what he came for: a foothold in the group and the sense that this tie, once again, will be decided on his terms.