CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia welcome Qarabag to National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia on 30 July 2026 for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. After a tight 0-0 draw in Baku a week earlier, everything is on the line in Bulgaria with a place in the next qualifying round at stake.

Both sides arrive in good early-season shape in Europe. CSKA Sofia have shown they can score goals at home in this campaign, but they face a Qarabag side that has yet to concede in the UEFA Europa League this season and has dominated recent head-to-head meetings. With the first leg finely balanced, this return fixture sets up as a classic clash between CSKA’s need to be more expansive and Qarabag’s structured, defensively perfect approach so far.

From a betting perspective, this CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag prediction hinges on whether the hosts can break down a defence that has not been breached in three European outings. The market makes Qarabag a marginal favourite, but the high draw probability suggests another tight, low-scoring encounter could be on the cards.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Key Stats

• In the current UEFA Europa League campaign, both CSKA Sofia and Qarabag are unbeaten after 3 matches each, with 2 wins and 1 draw.
• The first leg of this tie on 23 July 2026 in Baku finished Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round.
• In this UEFA Europa League season, CSKA Sofia have scored 5 goals and conceded 3 in 3 matches, while Qarabag have scored 6 and are yet to concede in 3 matches.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag — Tale of the Tape

• Position: Not available vs Not available
• Points: Not available vs Not available
• Goals For: 5 (CSKA Sofia in 3 matches) vs 6 (Qarabag in 3 matches)
• Goals Against: 3 (CSKA Sofia in 3 matches) vs 0 (Qarabag in 3 matches)
• Clean Sheets: CSKA Sofia 1 vs Qarabag 3 (UEFA Europa League 2026 statistics)

There is no group-stage standings table yet at this qualifying phase, but the early UEFA Europa League statistics give a clear picture of how these sides are performing. CSKA Sofia have been involved in more open games, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match across 3 fixtures. Their best result so far is a 3-2 home win, underlining both attacking potential and defensive vulnerability.

Qarabag, by contrast, have been almost flawless defensively. Across their 3 UEFA Europa League matches, they have scored 6 goals (2.0 per match on average) and have not conceded once, collecting 3 clean sheets. Their biggest wins include a 3-0 home victory and a 3-0 away success, suggesting their 4-2-3-1 structure travels well and allows them to control matches both home and away.

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Key Matchups

CSKA Sofia attack vs Qarabag back line

With no individual top scorers or assist data available, the key duel is collective: CSKA Sofia’s varied attacking set-up against Qarabag’s disciplined defence. CSKA have spread their 5 goals across different periods of the match, with a significant share coming between the 16th and 60th minutes. They average 3.0 goals scored at home in Europe this season but also concede 2.0 per home game, indicating a willingness to open up.

Qarabag’s back line, operating consistently in a 4-2-3-1 formation over all 3 UEFA Europa League fixtures, has yet to be breached. Their defensive numbers are perfect: 0 goals conceded, 0.0 goals against on average, and 3 clean sheets. How CSKA’s forwards and attacking midfielders handle this compact structure, especially in central areas, will go a long way to deciding the tie.

Midfield control: CSKA Sofia’s flexibility vs Qarabag’s stability

CSKA Sofia have alternated between 4-3-1-2, 3-5-2 and 4-4-2 in their three European matches, indicating tactical flexibility in midfield. That has produced 2 wins and 1 draw, but the shifting shapes can also create moments of instability, reflected in their 3 goals conceded, with a notable share coming late in games between the 76th and 90th minutes.

Qarabag, on the other hand, have stuck with 4-2-3-1 in all three outings. This continuity has underpinned both their 6 goals scored and their perfect defensive record. The double pivot in front of the defence has been key in screening central spaces and limiting chances. If CSKA’s midfielders, including ball-carriers and creators, cannot disrupt that structure, Qarabag will likely dictate tempo and territory.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These clubs have met several times in recent years in both European competition and friendlies, with Qarabag generally having the upper hand. The most recent clashes underline how tight this tie could be, particularly after the goalless first leg in Baku.

• 23 July 2026: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League)
• 27 June 2026: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs) – Match Cancelled
• 4 July 2023: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs)
• 7 July 2021: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag (Friendlies Clubs)

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction

Stats suggest a finely poised second leg. CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in this UEFA Europa League campaign (2 wins, 1 draw) and have shown they can score, especially at home. However, they have also conceded in two of their three matches and have not found a way past Qarabag in their last three completed head-to-head meetings, including the 0-0 first leg.

Qarabag’s case is built on control and defensive security. They are also unbeaten (2 wins, 1 draw) but crucially have not conceded a single goal in Europe this season. Their attack averages 2.0 goals per game, and their comparison indices in defence and overall strength are significantly higher than CSKA’s. The prediction model gives CSKA only a 10% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with the draw and Qarabag each at 45%. That points strongly towards another tight contest, with Qarabag slightly more likely to edge it or at least avoid defeat.

Predicted Score: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag

CSKA Sofia Recent Form

In UEFA Europa League 2026, CSKA Sofia have started strongly with 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 matches. They have been more expansive at home, scoring 3 goals and conceding 2 in their single home fixture so far, and 2 goals scored with just 1 conceded across 2 away games. Their early tournament form can be described as positive and attack-minded, but with some defensive lapses, especially late in matches.

Qarabag Recent Form

Qarabag’s recent UEFA Europa League form is equally impressive, with 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 matches. They have kept 3 clean sheets out of 3, conceding 0 goals in both home and away fixtures. Offensively, they have scored 3 goals at home and 3 away, showing they can impose their game in any venue. Their recent form is that of a well-balanced side with a perfect defensive record and efficient attacking output.

CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Lineup

With no confirmed lineups from previous fixtures, only key squad options can be highlighted. CSKA Sofia have several goalkeepers available, including D. Evtimov, F. Lapoukhov and D. Nikolov. In defence, options include J. Gbamin, T. Ivanov, Adrián Lapeña, Á. Martino, Pastor, Facundo Santiago Rodríguez, A. Tunchev, A. Yordanov and Tamimou Ouorou.

Midfield choices are deep, featuring G. Chorbadzhiyski, M. Ebong, J. Eto'o, J. Iliev, Bruno Jordão, V. Kaymakanov, A. Nikolov, P. Panayotov, S. Sensi, I. Solet Bomawoko, M. Brahimi and Léo Pereira. In attack, K. Dodaj, S. Godoy, M. Phaëton, A. Piedrahita, I. Pittas, R. Zhivkov and J. Zwarts provide a variety of profiles.

Given their use of 4-3-1-2, 3-5-2 and 4-4-2 in this UEFA Europa League campaign, CSKA are likely to opt for a system with two strikers at home to put pressure on Qarabag’s back line. The depth in midfield allows for either a more possession-based approach or a more direct, transitional game. Without any reported absences, the coach has the flexibility to tailor the shape to exploit Qarabag’s few weaknesses.

Qarabag Possible Starting Lineup

Qarabag’s squad is also well stocked across all lines. In goal, options include M. Kochalski, Ş. Məhəmmədəliyev and M. Zlomislić. Defensively, they can call on Dani Bolt, J. Gnali, A. Hüseynov, B. Hüseynov, Bruno Langa, Matheus Silva, K. Medina, B. Mustafazadə, S. Niftiyev and B. Varkonyi.

The midfield unit is rich in technical players: E. Cəfərquliyev, Č. Makreckis, H. Jabrayilzade, H. Ibrahim, M. Imamaliyev, M. Janković, Kady, Nicat Khasiyev, Samuel Lobato, Joni Montiel, Mehdi Mutallimli, Pedro Bicalho, A. Bashirov, O. Kashchuk and J. Mouaddib. In attack, R. Cephas, Behruz Qurbanli, M. Qurbanlı, Z. Sawo and R. Almeyda offer different types of forwards.

Having used a 4-2-3-1 formation in all three UEFA Europa League matches, Qarabag are expected to maintain that shape in Sofia. The double pivot in midfield and a solid central defensive pairing have been key to their 3 clean sheets. With several creative midfielders and mobile forwards, they can transition quickly from defence to attack, which suits an away-leg scenario where CSKA must take more risks.

CSKA Sofia Team News

No significant absences reported.

Qarabag Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

CSKA Sofia:

• None reported.

Qarabag:

• None reported.

Betting Tips: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

• Result Tip: Back Qarabag Draw No Bet or Qarabag to qualify. The prediction model assigns CSKA Sofia only a 10% chance of winning in 90 minutes, with Qarabag and the draw both at 45%. Qarabag are also the market favourite in the 1X2, with away odds ranging from 2.25 to 2.40 (implied probability roughly 41.7% to 44.4%), compared to home odds between 2.90 and 3.15 (about 31.7% to 34.5%). Their perfect defensive record in Europe strengthens the case for siding with the visitors.
• Goals Tip: Under 2.5 goals. CSKA Sofia’s UEFA Europa League matches average 2.7 total goals, but Qarabag’s games average 2.0 with 0 conceded. The first leg ended 0-0, and Qarabag have kept 3 clean sheets from 3. With the draw probability at 45% and both teams aware of the stakes, another tight, low-scoring encounter is likely. Look for under-goals prices in the goals markets alongside the main 1X2 odds band of 3.05–3.15 (home), 3.10–3.30 (draw) and 2.25–2.40 (away) as a guide to how balanced the market expects this to be.
• Value Tip: Qarabag to keep a clean sheet. Qarabag have 3 clean sheets in 3 UEFA Europa League matches, conceding 0.0 goals on average, and they have not allowed CSKA Sofia to score in their last three completed head-to-head games (0-0, 0-1, 0-1). Given that the away win is priced in the 2.25–2.40 range, any clean-sheet or “CSKA Sofia under 0.5 goals” market at a significantly bigger price could offer value relative to Qarabag’s defensive dominance.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.