CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag: UEFA Europa League Showdown

CSKA Sofia host Qarabag at the National Stadium Vasil Levski in Sofia in the UEFA Europa League 2nd Qualifying Round, with the tie finely poised after a 0-0 first leg in Baku. This is effectively a one-off decider, and the market plus model data suggest a very balanced clash with a slight qualitative edge to the visitors.

Both sides come into this game with identical Europa League records so far: form string “WWD” for CSKA Sofia and “WWD” for Qarabag in this competition. CSKA have played 3 matches (1 home, 2 away), winning 2 and drawing 1, scoring 5 and conceding 3. At home they have been involved in a high‑scoring 3-2 win, averaging 3.0 goals for and 2.0 against per home match. Qarabag also have 3 Europa League fixtures (2 home, 1 away), with 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 6 and conceding none; they average 2.0 goals scored per game and have yet to let in a single goal.

Looking at the recent form window from the prediction block, both teams have a “last five” form index of 78, but the profiles differ. CSKA Sofia’s attack index is 36 versus Qarabag’s 43, while defensively CSKA are at 79 and Qarabag at a perfect 100, underlining the Azerbaijani side’s solidity. Over these recent matches, CSKA have scored 5 and conceded 3 (1.7 scored, 1 conceded per game), whereas Qarabag have 6 scored and 0 conceded (2 scored per game, no goals allowed).

Goal Distribution

Goal distribution in Europa League play reinforces these patterns. CSKA’s 5 goals are spread fairly evenly from minutes 16–75, with one goal in each of the 16–30, 31–45, 46–60 and 61–75 intervals. Defensively, they are vulnerable late: of 3 goals conceded, 2 have come between 76–90 minutes (50% of their concessions). Qarabag, by contrast, have scored across most phases (1 goal in each of 0–15, 31–45, 46–60, 76–90 and 2 in 16–30), and they have not conceded in any interval so far.

Head-to-Head

Head-to-head, the only competitive meeting is the first leg on 23 July 2026 in Baku (UEFA Europa League, 2nd Qualifying Round) at Azərsun Arena, where Qarabag and CSKA Sofia drew 0-0. The other encounters are friendlies: on 4 July 2023, CSKA Sofia lost 0-1 at home to Qarabag in a club friendly; on 7 July 2021, they again lost 0-1 as the home side at Kunstrasenplatz TSV Fulpmes. A scheduled friendly on 27 June 2026 was cancelled. While friendly results must be treated cautiously, they do show Qarabag have historically edged this matchup, often in low‑scoring games.

Model Comparison

The model’s comparison indices slightly favour Qarabag overall. The total comparison index is 38.3 for CSKA Sofia versus 61.7 for Qarabag. Attack comparison reads 45 for CSKA and 55 for Qarabag, while defense is heavily skewed: 0 for CSKA and 100 for Qarabag, reflecting CSKA’s concessions versus Qarabag’s three consecutive clean sheets in the Europa League. The Poisson-based index is also 0 for CSKA and 100 for Qarabag, again indicating the model’s underlying edge to the visitors despite the tight headline probabilities.

Outcome Probabilities

From the prediction block, the outcome probabilities are: 10% home win, 45% draw, 45% away win. The official advice is “Winner : Qarabag”, but with a strong emphasis on the draw as an equally likely outcome.

Market prices for the match winner are very compressed. Home odds range from 2.30 (SBO) to 2.65 (Unibet), implying an unadjusted probability band of roughly 37.7–43.5% for CSKA Sofia. Draw odds span 2.86 (SBO) to 3.25 (10Bet, Marathonbet, 1xBet), implying around 30.8–35.0%. Away odds go from 2.55 (Unibet) to 2.90 (Betfair), an implied 34.5–39.2% for Qarabag. The market therefore treats all three outcomes as live, with perhaps a marginal lean to CSKA due to home advantage, whereas the model is more bullish on Qarabag and the stalemate.

Aligning model and odds, the most attractive angle is to follow the model’s strong draw component rather than taking a straight result. With both teams unbeaten (WWD vs WWD), Qarabag yet to concede, and the first leg ending 0-0, another tight game is highly plausible.

Betting Verdict

Betting verdict: the prediction data points to Qarabag as the slightly stronger side, but the safest value-driven play is on a draw, with a lean to Qarabag in draw‑no‑bet or double‑chance markets rather than an outright home win.