Cape Verde's Stunning World Cup Performance

Cape Verde keep tearing up the script. After holding Spain, they have now stood firm against Uruguay too, another heavyweight frustrated by the World Cup upstarts. The surprise is starting to wear off for some, though.

In BBC Sport’s new predictor game, 99.65% of users had Cape Verde down to lose to Spain. Against Uruguay, that figure dropped to 83%. Respect is arriving, slowly, match by match.

The crowd of predictors is not just catching up with the storylines on the pitch. They are outperforming the experts off it.

Across the second round of 24 group fixtures, the users posted 18 correct results. Chris Sutton, BBC Sport’s predictions pundit, landed 14. The AI model, powered by Microsoft Copilot Chat, came in with 15. All three improved on their first-round returns — Sutton up from 12, AI from 13, users from 13 to that standout 18 — but it is the collective that currently leads the way.

Now comes the final sweep of group games, the ones that decide who stays, who goes, and who finds an unexpected route through the back door. Scotland against Brazil. England against Panama. Tension everywhere, and no margin for error in the predictor game either, where readers must pick a winner or commit to a draw for every match.

Sutton has already nailed his colours to the mast for all 104 games at this World Cup and has even laid out how he thinks each of the 12 groups will finish. The AI has been handed the same task in shorter bursts: “predict the results of the second round of World Cup group games” was the prompt, and the numbers followed.

Now the spotlight swings to the final round.

Mexico v Czech Republic – Rotation, altitude and a window of opportunity

Mexico City / Thursday, 25 June / 02:00 BST

Mexico are already through as group winners. Job done, at least on paper. That security changes everything for this final group game at Estadio Azteca.

With qualification sealed, wholesale changes are likely. Fringe players will expect minutes, legs will be saved for the last 32, and the intensity may dip. For the Czech Republic, that sliver of uncertainty is the opening they desperately need. Only a win gives them any realistic chance of sneaking into the knockouts.

But this is Mexico, at altitude, in a stadium that still feels like a pressure cooker even when the stakes are lower. Sutton has already seen them dismantle South Africa here, and he leans heavily on that memory. The crowd, the thin air, the rhythm of a side playing at home — all of it, he believes, will bite the Czechs.

His verdict is blunt: Mexico to lose 0-1. The AI, reading the same scenario differently, backs a more open game and a 1-2 scoreline, also in favour of the Czech Republic. Both see the upset. Both think rotation will cost Mexico on the night.

The question is whether the Czech Republic can turn that tiny window into a door to the last 32.

Jordan v Argentina – Messi, the Golden Boot, and a calculated gamble

Dallas / Sunday, 28 June / 03:00

Argentina have wrapped up the group. They can breathe. That usually means one thing: changes, and plenty of them.

Sutton expects Lionel Messi to be one of the players rested. It is a ruthless but logical call. If Argentina are serious about lifting the trophy, this is the moment to protect their 37-year-old genius, even if it dents his Golden Boot hopes and his chances of extending his record as the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer.

His fans will not like it. Stadiums fill to see Messi, not watch him sit on the bench in a tracksuit. But Sutton is adamant: wrap him in cotton wool now, cash in later in the knockout rounds.

On the pitch, he sees a mismatch regardless. Messi or no Messi, he does not believe Jordan can live with Argentina’s firepower. He goes 0-3. The AI, for once, falls in line with him: also 0-3.

Different routes to the same conclusion. Argentina cruise, the group ends with a procession, and the real test begins in the last 32.

Portugal v Colombia – Ronaldo’s goals, Colombia’s resistance

Miami / Sunday, 28 June / 00:30

This one matters. Portugal need a win to finish top of the group. Anything less, and they surrender control of their path through the tournament.

Sutton watched them tear apart Uzbekistan in their previous outing. That display suggested a side capable of cutting loose, but Colombia represent a step up in class and resilience. The game, he feels, will tighten, the margins will shrink.

He goes for a twist. Colombia to dig in, frustrate, and take a point. A 2-2 draw, with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring both of Portugal’s goals but still leaving the pitch dissatisfied. The narrative is familiar: Ronaldo delivers, the team falls just short of what it needs.

The AI is less forgiving. It sides with Portugal’s quality and calls it 1-2, a narrow win that would be enough to secure top spot.

Whatever happens, Sutton is convinced of one thing: Ronaldo is not going quietly. His tongue-in-cheek prediction has the forward playing on until the 2040 World Cup. For now, though, Miami is the only stage that matters.

Panama v England – Tuchel under scrutiny, Kane under pressure

New York / Saturday, 27 June / 22:00

Thomas Tuchel’s half-time magic ran out against Ghana. The England manager earned rave reviews for his interval team talk in the win over Croatia, but when he tried to spark a similar turnaround last time out, nothing stuck. Ghana held firm, England faltered, and questions followed.

Now comes Panama, and with them, a different kind of pressure. England need to win. Style points would help, but three points are non-negotiable.

Sutton expects changes, but not an overhaul. Harry Kane, he insists, will start. Around him, the edges may be reshaped. Bukayo Saka and Marcus Rashford are tipped to come in on the wings, adding direct running and goals. Sutton wants Saka in from the start instead of Noni Madueke, and he is clear about left-back too: Nico O’Reilly over Djed Spence, a choice he frames as picking the better all-round footballer.

Panama have been stubborn so far, losing 1-0 in both of their games. They have not been blown away, only edged out. Sutton does not see that pattern holding. He backs England to find a more comfortable margin this time, with Kane shaking off his late miss against Ghana and “back in the goals.”

His call: 0-3. The AI agrees, also going 0-3.

If that prediction lands, England will not just be back on track. They will be back with a performance that resets the mood around Tuchel’s team heading into the knockout rounds — and that is when the real judgement begins.