Arsenal W vs Liverpool W Match Preview: Title Chase Showdown

Liverpool W welcome title-chasing Arsenal W to Anfield on 2026-05-16 in a match that pits a relegation-threatened side against one of the league’s most dominant outfits. The standings underline the gap: Liverpool are 11th with 17 points from 21 matches (4-5-12, goal difference -11, 20 scored and 31 conceded), while Arsenal sit 2nd on 48 points from 21 (14-6-1, goal difference +37, 50 scored and 13 conceded). Arsenal are already assured of a Champions League spot and still pushing at the top; Liverpool are trying to stay clear of the bottom with one round left.

Form and performance metrics are heavily tilted towards the visitors. Liverpool’s league form string is poor and the prediction model rates their recent form at 35%, attack at 19%, defence at 43%. Across 21 league games they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.5 conceded per match, with only 4 clean sheets and 9 matches without scoring. At home they are slightly better (3-3-4, 12:12), but still inconsistent.

Arsenal, by contrast, have elite underlying numbers. Their prediction form index is 65%, with attack at 81% and defence at 57%. In the league they have 13 wins, 6 draws and just 1 defeat from 20 matches in the prediction dataset, scoring 49 and conceding 13 (2.5 for and 0.7 against per game). The last-five snapshot is even more impressive: 21 goals scored and 3 conceded (4.2 for, 0.6 against), with an attacking index of 100% and defensive index of 79%. They have kept 10 clean sheets and failed to score only 3 times all campaign.

The prediction model’s comparison section summarises the gap clearly: total strength is rated 73.8% in favour of Arsenal versus 26.2% for Liverpool, with Arsenal dominating in goals (82% vs 18%) and Poisson-based probability (78% vs 22%). Even though the three-way percentage in the prediction block is split as 10% home, 45% draw, 45% away, the algorithm still selects Arsenal W as the clear “winner” pick and explicitly advises “Winner : Arsenal W”.

Head-to-Head Data

Head-to-head data (excluding friendlies) reinforces Arsenal’s edge but also shows Liverpool can be dangerous. In FA WSL action on 2025-12-06 at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal beat Liverpool 2-1. Earlier in the same competition on 2025-03-22, also at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal won 4-0. In the FA Women’s Cup quarter-finals on 2025-03-09 at Mangata Pay UK Stadium, Liverpool pulled off a 1-0 away win. In the league on 2024-12-15 at St Helens Stadium, Arsenal won 1-0 away, and on 2024-01-28 at Prenton Park they also won 2-0. Going further back in the FA WSL, Liverpool won 1-0 away at Emirates Stadium on 2023-10-01, while Arsenal had a 2-0 home win at Meadow Park on 2023-03-08. In the FA WSL on 2022-10-23 at Prenton Park, Arsenal won 2-0 away, and in the FA Women’s Cup on 2022-02-27 at Prenton Park they won 4-0 away. The earliest listed meeting in this dataset is a 3-2 Arsenal away win in the FA WSL on 2020-02-13 at Lookers Vauxhall Stadium. That pattern shows Arsenal repeatedly winning away in the league, with Liverpool’s successes coming via tight scorelines and one notable cup upset.

Betting Perspective

From a betting perspective, the official prediction advice is unambiguous: back Arsenal W to win. The model designates Arsenal as the winner despite giving a relatively high combined 90% to “draw or away” in the probability split (45% draw, 45% away). With Arsenal’s away record (6-3-1, 22:7 in the standings), their recent attacking explosion, and Liverpool’s overall defensive vulnerability (31 conceded in 21 league games), the most data-aligned angle is:

Main pick: Arsenal W to win (following “Winner : Arsenal W”).

Given Liverpool’s modest scoring rate and Arsenal’s strong defensive metrics and clean-sheet count, correct-score backers could reasonably gravitate towards controlled but clear Arsenal victories such as 0-2 or 1-3, but the core, model-backed position remains simply to side with the away win.