Supercomputer Forecasts Final Champions League League Phase Standings

Data Analysts Predict Champions League Group Stage Outcomes

The 2026/27 Champions League season is nearly here, and with the group stage opponents set, a supercomputer has been used to predict how the initial phase might conclude. Paris Saint-Germain remain favourites, aiming for a third straight title, but face strong competition from teams like Premier League champions Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Barcelona, and Real Madrid.

This revamped league format, now in its third edition since UEFA's 2024 overhaul, means every match result could heavily impact a club's progression. Using thousands of simulations, fixture difficulty ratings, and statistical models, Football Ranked’s analysts have generated a projected final table.

Teams Predicted Near the Bottom

Sabah FK of Azerbaijan, new to the Champions League, are expected to struggle most due to facing the toughest group opponents, predicted to finish last with just 2.9 points. Slovan Bratislava follow with 3.7 points, having never reached knockouts before. Shakhtar Donetsk, playing home matches at Chelsea, sit near the bottom with an anticipated 4.9 points, just behind LASK (5.6) and Slavia Prague (5.7).

Viking FK from Norway, ranked 31st with 5.9 points, hope to emulate recent Norwegian successes like Bodo/Glimt by punching above their weight. Feyenoord and AEK Athens narrowly lead them. The unpredictable Galatasaray are forecasted 28th with 8.5 points, reflecting their erratic performances.

• 36. Sabah: 2.9 points
• 35. Slovan Bratislava: 3.7 points
• 34. Shakhtar Donetsk: 4.9 points
• 33. LASK: 5.6 points
• 32. Slavia Prague: 5.7 points
• 31. Viking: 5.9 points
• 30. Feyenoord: 6.9 points
• 29. AEK Athens: 7.9 points
• 28. Galatasaray: 8.5 points

Mid-Lower Table Predictions

Villarreal (9 points), Club Brugge (9.3 points), and Real Betis (9.6 points) are expected to miss out on automatic knockout qualification, likely heading into playoff rounds. Real Betis might just miss out due to goal difference behind 24th-placed Lille. RC Lens, also on 9.6 points, face tense late fixtures. Bodo/Glimt, RB Leipzig, and Fenerbahce are predicted to have smoother paths to playoffs.

Atletico Madrid, semifinalists last year, face a tougher outlook, predicted 19th with 10.9 points, hinting at a challenging campaign ahead under Diego Simeone.

• 27. Villarreal: 9.0 points
• 26. Club Brugge: 9.3 points
• 25. Real Betis: 9.6 points
• 24. Lille: 9.6 points
• 23. RC Lens: 9.6 points
• 22. Bodo/Glimt: 10.0 points
• 21. RB Leipzig: 10.6 points
• 20. Fenerbahce: 10.8 points
• 19. Atletico Madrid: 10.9 points

Mid-Table Teams

Como, managed by former Arsenal and Chelsea midfielder Cesc Fabregas, have an inspiring story and are projected to earn 11 points. Porto and PSV share similar predictions around 11 to 11.3 points. Sporting CP come in with 11.7 points, trailing Serie A sides Roma (12) and Napoli (12.5), the latter boasting stars like Kevin De Bruyne and Rasmus Hojlund.

Borussia Dortmund are placed 12th with 13.2 points, still recovering after big summer changes post their 2024 final run. VfB Stuttgart, despite the easiest fixture list, fall just outside the top ten with 13.3 points. Aston Villa, reigning Europa League champions, rank 10th with 14 points, which reflects some early-season struggles.

• 18. Como: 11.0 points
• 17. Porto: 11.0 points
• 16. PSV: 11.3 points
• 15. Sporting CP: 11.7 points
• 14. Roma: 12.0 points
• 13. Napoli: 12.5 points
• 12. Borussia Dortmund: 13.2 points
• 11. VfB Stuttgart: 13.3 points
• 10. Aston Villa: 14.0 points

Top Contenders

Manchester United return to Europe’s elite, predicted ninth with 14.1 points, narrowly missing automatic qualification and facing an extra playoff. Manager Michael Carrick will be tested by this demanding schedule. Barcelona and Liverpool edge them out for the top eight spots, with Liverpool expected to finish seventh with 15.4 points.

Inter Milan, currently Italian champions, look set for sixth place with 16.2 points, suggesting another serious challenge for the trophy after two finals lost in recent years. Real Madrid climb to fifth with 16.5 points, a notable improvement under Jose Mourinho compared to last season.

Manchester City are projected fourth with 16.9 points, continuing Pep Guardiola’s successful era. Paris Saint-Germain sit third with 17.1 points, close behind the leaders.

Arsenal, last season’s league phase winners and finalists, are predicted second with 17.7 points, while Bayern Munich top the table with a commanding 18.9 points, aiming to convert their domestic strength into European glory.

• 9. Manchester United: 14.1 points
• 8. Barcelona: 14.8 points
• 7. Liverpool: 15.4 points
• 6. Inter Milan: 16.2 points
• 5. Real Madrid: 16.5 points
• 4. Manchester City: 16.9 points
• 3. Paris Saint-Germain: 17.1 points
• 2. Arsenal: 17.7 points
• 1. Bayern Munich: 18.9 points